Fiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game
Closing line
IND -3.5✓ MIL covered by 11.5
IND -3.5✓ MIL covered by 11.5Closing total239.5Under by 27.5
| IND | This season | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 3-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IND 118–119 MIL · ✓ MIL (55%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 29 | 32 | 24 | 17 | 102 |
| MIL | 31 | 19 | 34 | 26 | 110 |
1st half: IND 61, MIL 50 (IND by 11). The model had MIL by 0.9 and a total of 118.4 (actual 111).
Team stats
| IND | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 39-96 41% | Field goals | 41-95 43% |
| 13-48 27% | 3-pointers | 13-44 30% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 15-21 71% |
| 48 14 off | Rebounds | 61 16 off |
| 27 | Assists | 27 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 8 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| IND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam F | 37 | 20 | 13 | 6 | -9 |
| Tyrese Haliburton G | 35 | 22 | 6 | 9 | -6 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. G | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | -11 |
| Jay Huff C | 23 | 6 | 6 | 1 | -8 |
| Aaron Nesmith G | 21 | 13 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Bench | |||||
| Jarace Walker F | 29 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -2 |
| Quenton Jackson G | 27 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 |
| Obi Toppin F | 23 | 14 | 6 | 2 | -1 |
| Larry Nance Jr. F | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| Jalen Slawson F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 |
Did not play: Kobe Brown, Braden Smith, Andrew Nembhard (INJURY/ILLNESS), Ivica Zubac (INJURY/ILLNESS)
| MIL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins G | 32 | 19 | 2 | 4 | +10 |
| Tyler Herro G | 32 | 23 | 10 | 7 | +1 |
| Kyle Kuzma F | 29 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Myles Turner C | 28 | 6 | 9 | 4 | +14 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. F | 25 | 8 | 6 | 0 | -1 |
| Bench | |||||
| Kasparas Jakucionis G | 21 | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| AJ Green G | 20 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +5 |
| Kel'el Ware C | 19 | 16 | 14 | 0 | -5 |
| Brayden Burries G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +6 |
| Nate Ament F | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +12 |
| Ousmane Dieng F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Did not play: Bogoljub Markovic (COACH'S DECISION), Kevin Porter Jr. (COACH'S DECISION), Jericho Sims (COACH'S DECISION), Gary Trent Jr. (COACH'S DECISION), Caris LeVert (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketIND -3.5
ModelMIL -1.8
Model edgeMIL +5.3
W MIL covered
Total
Market239.5
Model236.9
Model edgeUnder 2.6
W Under
Projected score
IND 117.6 · MIL 119.3
IND 102 · MIL 110
Win probability
MIL 55%
1st half
Spread
MIL -0.9
IND -11.0
Total
118.4
111 points
Projected score
IND 58.8 · MIL 59.6
IND 61 · MIL 50
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIND -4.5
1 → MIL
CloseIND -3.5
1 pt toward MIL
Total
Open239.5
no move
Close239.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
IND -155 · MIL +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IND -4.5 · closed IND -3.5 · moved 1 toward MILmodel MIL -2
model MIL -2
Opened 239.5 · unchangedmodel 237
model 237
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
| MILlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% | 3-0 100% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 32 since 2021-22
IND 14–18 MILMIL leads · 32 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 4 meetings · IND 14-18 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025-26 | IND 123 @ MIL 134 | MIL -7.5 | MIL W |
| Feb 6, 2025-26 | IND 99 @ MIL 105 | MIL +1.5 | MIL W |
| Dec 23, 2025-26 | MIL 111 @ IND 94 | IND +1.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 3, 2025-26 | MIL 117 @ IND 115 | IND +6.5 | IND W |
| Apr 29, 2024-25 | MIL 118 @ IND 119 | IND -7.5 | MIL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pacers
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
NO
NOW 123-120
+0.5
23
vs
DAL
DALL 105-121
−23.5
25
@
BKN
BKNW 136-109
+21.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@NO
NOW 123-120
+4.5
23
vsDAL
DALL 105-121
−15.5
25
@BKN
BKNW 136-109
+13.5
over 2under 1avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucks
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-0
100% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
over 3under 0avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pacers
2-1 overall · 1-0 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets136–109
- Lvs Mavericks105–121
- W@ Pelicans123–120
1 day since their last game.
Bucks
0-3 overall · 0-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
- L@ Wizards116–128
2 days since their last game.