Kaseya Center · at Heat
Closing line
MIA -7.5✓ DAL covered by 11.5
MIA -7.5✓ DAL covered by 11.5Closing total240.5Under by 18.5
 DAL | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-3 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 0-3 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 1-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DAL 119–121 MIA · ✗ MIA (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 23 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 113 |
| MIA | 27 | 25 | 32 | 25 | 109 |
1st half: DAL 53, MIA 52 (DAL by 1). The model had MIA by 1.0 and a total of 119.5 (actual 105).
Team stats
| DAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 43-94 46% | Field goals | 41-92 45% |
| 14-45 31% | 3-pointers | 13-41 32% |
| 13-14 93% | Free throws | 14-25 56% |
| 51 13 off | Rebounds | 43 10 off |
| 31 | Assists | 26 |
| 11 | Steals | 9 |
| 10 | Blocks | 6 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| DAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington F | 41 | 20 | 9 | 2 | +5 |
| Cooper Flagg F | 40 | 29 | 6 | 11 | +8 |
| Kyrie Irving G | 33 | 18 | 6 | 6 | -6 |
| Max Christie G | 26 | 11 | 5 | 3 | +4 |
| Daniel Gafford F | 26 | 8 | 9 | 3 | +6 |
| Bench | |||||
| Zaccharie Risacher F | 30 | 6 | 8 | 1 | +9 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. G | 17 | 15 | 4 | 4 | +22 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | -6 |
| Marcus Sasser G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 |
| Sergio de Larrea F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -12 |
Did not play: Moussa Cisse (COACH'S DECISION), Jett Howard (COACH'S DECISION), Tobi Lawal (COACH'S DECISION), Dwight Powell (COACH'S DECISION)
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo F | 39 | 29 | 14 | 11 | -1 |
| Andrew Wiggins F | 34 | 12 | 3 | 1 | -10 |
| Davion Mitchell G | 33 | 21 | 0 | 2 | -10 |
| Bam Adebayo C | 30 | 8 | 8 | 3 | -8 |
| Klay Thompson G | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -5 |
| Bench | |||||
| Pelle Larsson G | 34 | 12 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
| Bobby Portis F | 24 | 10 | 12 | 2 | +8 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. G | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 |
| Dru Smith G | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +4 |
Did not play: Simone Fontecchio (COACH'S DECISION), Nikola Jovic (COACH'S DECISION), Ryan Conwell (COACH'S DECISION), Myron Gardner (COACH'S DECISION), Nick Richards (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -7.5
ModelMIA -2.0
Model edgeDAL +5.5
W DAL covered
Total
Market240.5
Model239.3
Model edgeUnder 1.3
W Under
Projected score
DAL 118.6 · MIA 120.6
DAL 113 · MIA 109
Win probability
MIA 56%
1st half
Spread
MIA -1.0
DAL -1.0
Total
119.5
105 points
Projected score
DAL 59.3 · MIA 60.2
DAL 53 · MIA 52
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -7.5
no move
CloseMIA -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open235.5
▲ 5
Close240.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
DAL +220 · MIA -270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -7.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -2
model MIA -2
Opened 235.5 · closed 240.5 · moved 5 upmodel 239.5
model 239.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% |
| MIAlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
DAL 6–4 MIADAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DAL 7-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025-26 | MIA 108 @ DAL 118 | DAL +4.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 24, 2025-26 | DAL 102 @ MIA 106 | MIA -7.5 | DAL W |
| Feb 13, 2024-25 | MIA 113 @ DAL 118 | DAL +2.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 24, 2024-25 | DAL 118 @ MIA 123 | MIA -2.5 | MIA W |
| Apr 10, 2023-24 | DAL 111 @ MIA 92 | MIA +2.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
over 1under 2avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Heat
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
0-3
0% covers · avg −16.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −16.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
over 1under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mavericks
1-2 overall · 0-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
- L@ Rockets110–128
2 days since their last game.
Heat
0-3 overall · 0-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
- Lvs Timberwolves106–131
2 days since their last game.