Spectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -4.5✓ CHA covered by 9.5
MIA -4.5✓ CHA covered by 9.5Closing total227.5Under by 2.5
| MIA | This season | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 0-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 113–118 CHA · ✓ CHA (62%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 31 | 27 | 17 | 35 | 110 |
| CHA | 31 | 35 | 30 | 19 | 115 |
1st half: MIA 58, CHA 66 (CHA by 8). The model had CHA by 2.4 and a total of 115.5 (actual 124).
Team stats
| MIA | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 37-86 43% | Field goals | 38-87 44% |
| 13-35 37% | 3-pointers | 16-43 37% |
| 23-25 92% | Free throws | 23-25 92% |
| 37 8 off | Rebounds | 45 10 off |
| 22 | Assists | 22 |
| 9 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 23 | Fouls | 22 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 24 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo C | 39 | 20 | 8 | 4 | +9 |
| Davion Mitchell G | 37 | 22 | 1 | 10 | +7 |
| Klay Thompson G | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -9 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo F | 25 | 14 | 6 | 3 | -20 |
| Andrew Wiggins F | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -18 |
| Bench | |||||
| Pelle Larsson G | 36 | 15 | 7 | 4 | +7 |
| Bobby Portis F | 27 | 13 | 8 | 0 | +7 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. G | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
| Nikola Jovic F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -8 |
Did not play: Myron Gardner (COACH'S DECISION), Nick Richards (COACH'S DECISION), Dru Smith (COACH'S DECISION), Simone Fontecchio (COACH'S DECISION)
| CHA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder G | 38 | 25 | 6 | 4 | +5 |
| Naz Reid C | 37 | 23 | 9 | 0 | +1 |
| Brandon Miller F | 36 | 34 | 7 | 4 | +20 |
| Sion James G | 26 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -3 |
| Moussa Diabate F | 22 | 4 | 5 | 2 | -12 |
| Bench | |||||
| Grayson Allen G | 34 | 20 | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner C | 23 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +17 |
| Royce O'Neale F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4 |
| Tidjane Salaun F | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 |
| Christian Anderson G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
Did not play: PJ Hall (COACH'S DECISION), Liam McNeeley (COACH'S DECISION), Hannes Steinbach (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -4.5
ModelCHA -4.4
Model edgeCHA +8.9
W CHA covered
Total
Market227.5
Model230.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
L Under
Projected score
MIA 113.2 · CHA 117.6
MIA 110 · CHA 115
Win probability
CHA 62%
1st half
Spread
CHA -2.4
CHA -8.0
Total
115.5
124 points
Projected score
MIA 56.6 · CHA 58.9
MIA 58 · CHA 66
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -3.5
1 → MIA
CloseMIA -4.5
1 pt toward MIA
Total
Open231.5
▼ 4
Close227.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
MIA -180 · CHA +150
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -3.5 · closed MIA -4.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel CHA -4.5
model CHA -4.5
Opened 231.5 · closed 227.5 · moved 4 downmodel 231
model 231
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAlast 2 | 0-2 0% | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% |
| CHAlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
MIA 16–5 CHAMIA leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · MIA 12-8-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2025-26 | MIA 126 @ CHA 127 | CHA -5.5 | MIA W |
| Mar 17, 2025-26 | MIA 106 @ CHA 136 | CHA -5.5 | CHA W |
| Mar 6, 2025-26 | MIA 128 @ CHA 120 | CHA -7.5 | MIA W |
| Nov 7, 2025-26 | CHA 108 @ MIA 126 | MIA -7.5 | MIA W |
| Oct 28, 2025-26 | CHA 117 @ MIA 144 | MIA -4.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Heat
2 games played
Straight up
0-2
0% wins
Against the spread
0-2
0% covers · avg −20.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −20.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
over 1under 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hornets
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −19.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −12.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
BKN
BKNW 110-103
+5.5
23
vs
ATL
ATLL 81-128
−44.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −19.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@BKN
BKNW 110-103
−7.5
23
vsATL
ATLL 81-128
−17.5
over 0under 2avg −12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Heat
0-2 overall · 0-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Pistons111–128
- Lvs Timberwolves106–131
1 day since their last game.
Hornets
1-1 overall · 1-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Hawks81–128
- W@ Nets110–103
1 day since their last game.