LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game

#20LACClippers101final

Final

#2MINTimberwolves127▲ winner

Closing lineMIN -6.5✓ MIN covered by 19.5

Closing total222.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Clippers and Timberwolves
LAC	This season	MIN
1-3	Record	3-2
3-1	ATS	4-1
1-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LAC 108–116 MIN · ✓ MIN (72%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LAC	24	32	25	20	101
MIN	34	35	29	29	127

1st half: LAC 56, MIN 69 (MIN by 13). The model had MIN by 4.3 and a total of 112.5 (actual 125).

Team stats

LAC		MIN
35-85 41%	Field goals	51-96 53%
12-30 40%	3-pointers	18-43 42%
19-22 86%	Free throws	7-11 64%
42 11 off	Rebounds	43 12 off
24	Assists	32
7	Steals	7
7	Blocks	6
18	Turnovers	12
16	Fouls	20
42	Points in paint	62
9	Fast-break points	18

Players

LAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Darius Garland G	31	24	2	5	-19
Kris Dunn G	31	5	5	7	-6
Derrick Jones Jr. F	26	10	1	1	-11
Rui Hachimura F	26	12	5	0	-4
Isaiah Jackson F	22	10	7	4	-8
Bench
Keaton Wagler G	25	12	6	3	-24
Kobe Sanders G	24	7	4	2	-16
Brook Lopez C	21	13	6	0	-14
Gradey Dick G	12	3	0	1	-12
Blake Wesley G	5	0	4	0	-4
Cam Christie G	5	2	1	1	-4
Baba Miller F	5	0	1	0	-4
Nick Martinelli F	5	3	0	0	-4

Did not play: Jalen Pickett (COACH'S DECISION)

MIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Jaden McDaniels F	33	23	6	7	+22
Rudy Gobert C	30	9	13	4	+18
Ayo Dosunmu G	30	15	7	2	+12
LaMelo Ball G	29	24	4	7	+16
Jonathan Kuminga F	22	5	1	0	+1
Bench
Terrence Shannon Jr. G	20	11	3	2	+10
Bones Hyland G	20	19	0	8	+8
Joan Beringer F	18	4	4	0	+8
Jaylen Clark G	17	5	0	2	+23
Trey Lyles F	17	10	5	0	+9
Zyon Pullin G	2	2	0	0	+1
Cody Williams F	2	0	0	0	+1
Isaiah Evans F	2	0	0	0	+1

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketMIN -6.5

ModelMIN -8.0

Model edgeMIN +1.5

W MIN covered

Total

Market222.5

Model224.2

Model edgeOver 1.7

W Over

Projected score

LAC 108.1 · MIN 116.1

LAC 101 · MIN 127

Win probability

MIN 72%

1st half

Spread

MIN -4.3

MIN -13.0

Total

112.5

125 points

Projected score

LAC 54 · MIN 58.4

LAC 56 · MIN 69

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -9.5

3 → LAC

CloseMIN -6.5

3 pts toward LAC

Total

Open230.5

▼ 8

Close222.5

Down 8 since the open

Moneyline

LAC +215 · MIN -265

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened MIN -9.5 · unchangedmodel MIN -8

model MIN -8

Oct 22line modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LAC	MIN	Over	Under	LAC	MIN
DraftKingsDK	-9.5-110	+9.5-110	230.5-110	230.5-110	+270	-340

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0
MIN WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3
MIN UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%
MINlast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

LAC 7–12 MINMIN leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · LAC 11-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 11, 2025-26	MIN 128 @ LAC 153	LAC -1.5	LAC W
Feb 26, 2025-26	MIN 94 @ LAC 88	LAC +8.5	LAC W
Feb 8, 2025-26	LAC 115 @ MIN 96	MIN -8.5	LAC W
Dec 6, 2025-26	LAC 106 @ MIN 109	MIN -8.5	LAC W
Jan 6, 2024-25	LAC 106 @ MIN 108	MIN -2.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

over 1under 3avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +12.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

over 2under 3avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers @ Timberwolves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Timberwolves

Clippers

Timberwolves