American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
Closing line
HOU -5.5✓ DAL covered by 10.5
HOU -5.5✓ DAL covered by 10.5Closing total223.5Over by 3.5
| HOU | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 5-0 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | O/U | 1-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 117–111 DAL · ✗ HOU (65%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 20 | 31 | 33 | 27 | 111 |
| DAL | 27 | 17 | 32 | 40 | 116 |
1st half: HOU 51, DAL 44 (HOU by 7). The model had HOU by 3.2 and a total of 114.2 (actual 95).
Team stats
| HOU | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-96 42% | Field goals | 42-81 52% |
| 7-29 24% | 3-pointers | 12-33 36% |
| 24-33 73% | Free throws | 20-27 74% |
| 48 20 off | Rebounds | 41 12 off |
| 26 | Assists | 24 |
| 12 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 23 | Fouls | 24 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 28 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson G | 39 | 15 | 3 | 6 | -10 |
| Kevin Durant F | 37 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +8 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. F | 35 | 22 | 3 | 2 | -9 |
| Fred VanVleet G | 33 | 16 | 5 | 6 | +1 |
| Clint Capela C | 30 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| Bench | |||||
| Tari Eason F | 26 | 11 | 13 | 2 | -5 |
| Marcus Smart G | 17 | 8 | 2 | 4 | -8 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe C | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +7 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic G | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -9 |
Did not play: Isaiah Crawford (COACH'S DECISION), Reed Sheppard (LOW BACK SORENESS), Alperen Sengun (LOW BACK SORENESS), Jae'Sean Tate (COACH'S DECISION), Bruce Thornton (COACH'S DECISION)
| DAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg F | 39 | 33 | 9 | 6 | +4 |
| Kyrie Irving G | 35 | 35 | 4 | 9 | +4 |
| P.J. Washington F | 34 | 3 | 10 | 1 | +1 |
| Daniel Gafford F | 29 | 18 | 7 | 2 | +10 |
| Max Christie G | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Bench | |||||
| Zaccharie Risacher F | 28 | 12 | 6 | 3 | +3 |
| Caleb Martin F | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. G | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 |
| Marcus Sasser G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 |
Did not play: Moussa Cisse (COACH'S DECISION), Jett Howard (COACH'S DECISION), Tobi Lawal (COACH'S DECISION), Naji Marshall (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -5.5
ModelHOU -5.5
Model edge—
DAL covered
Total
Market223.5
Model227.9
Model edgeOver 4.4
W Over
Projected score
HOU 116.7 · DAL 111.2
HOU 111 · DAL 116
Win probability
HOU 65%
1st half
Spread
HOU -3.2
HOU -7.0
Total
114.2
95 points
Projected score
HOU 58.7 · DAL 55.5
HOU 51 · DAL 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -5.5
no move
CloseHOU -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open227.5
▼ 4
Close223.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -198 · DAL +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -5.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -5.5 matches the line
model HOU -5.5 = line ✓
Opened 227.5 · closed 223.5 · moved 4 downmodel 228
model 228
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 5-0 100% | 4-1 80% |
| DALlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
HOU 8–13 DALDAL leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 9-12 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026-27 | DAL 110 @ HOU 128 | HOU -9.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ HOU 111 | HOU -10.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ DAL 110 | DAL +7.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 6, 2025-26 | HOU 109 @ DAL 122 | DAL +6.5 | DAL W |
| Nov 3, 2025-26 | DAL 102 @ HOU 110 | HOU -12.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rockets
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
5-0
100% covers · avg +10.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-1
80% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@
SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@
ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
28
@
MIL
MILW 132-100
+23.5
covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+5.5
over 4under 1avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
over 1under 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rockets
5-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks132–100
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
- W@ Spurs114–110
- Wvs Mavericks128–110
2 days since their last game.
Mavericks
3-2 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
- L@ Rockets110–128
2 days since their last game.