American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
Closing line
OKC -4.5✓ DAL covered by 28.5
OKC -4.5✓ DAL covered by 28.5Closing total227.5Under by 11.5
| OKC | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 1-3 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OKC 118–109 DAL · ✗ OKC (75%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 30 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 96 |
| DAL | 33 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 120 |
1st half: OKC 59, DAL 65 (DAL by 6). The model had OKC by 5.6 and a total of 113.9 (actual 124).
Team stats
| OKC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-87 41% | Field goals | 46-97 47% |
| 5-32 16% | 3-pointers | 16-45 36% |
| 19-23 83% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 43 12 off | Rebounds | 49 15 off |
| 17 | Assists | 30 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| OKC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCain G | 29 | 10 | 4 | 4 | -13 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G | 28 | 21 | 6 | 2 | -21 |
| Ajay Mitchell G | 28 | 29 | 4 | 3 | +4 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein C | 26 | 10 | 14 | 3 | -12 |
| Kenrich Williams G | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | -19 |
| Bench | |||||
| Bennett Stirtz G | 28 | 8 | 0 | 3 | -14 |
| Josh Dix G | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -20 |
| Aday Mara C | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | -8 |
| Jaylin Williams F | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +3 |
| Brooks Barnhizer F | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -16 |
| Micah Peavy G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| DAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg F | 33 | 26 | 5 | 8 | +12 |
| Daniel Gafford F | 27 | 7 | 11 | 2 | +14 |
| P.J. Washington F | 27 | 18 | 9 | 0 | +2 |
| Kyrie Irving G | 27 | 15 | 2 | 4 | +25 |
| Max Christie G | 22 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +14 |
| Bench | |||||
| Zaccharie Risacher F | 29 | 13 | 6 | 1 | +16 |
| Marcus Sasser G | 22 | 10 | 1 | 4 | +11 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 18 | 10 | 6 | 3 | +7 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +11 |
| Caleb Martin F | 14 | 10 | 2 | 0 | +8 |
| Tobi Lawal F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jett Howard G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketOKC -4.5
ModelOKC -9.6
Model edgeOKC +5.1
L DAL covered
Total
Market227.5
Model227.2
Model edgeUnder 0.3
W Under
Projected score
OKC 118.4 · DAL 108.8
OKC 96 · DAL 120
Win probability
OKC 75%
1st half
Spread
OKC -5.6
DAL -6.0
Total
113.9
124 points
Projected score
OKC 59.7 · DAL 54.1
OKC 59 · DAL 65
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOKC -5.5
1 → DAL
CloseOKC -4.5
1 pt toward DAL
Total
Open230.5
▼ 3
Close227.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
OKC -192 · DAL +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OKC -5.5 · closed OKC -4.5 · moved 1 toward DALmodel OKC -9.5
model OKC -9.5
Opened 230.5 · closed 227.5 · moved 3 downmodel 227
model 227
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKClast 4 | 4-0 100% | 3-1 75% | 1-3 25% |
| DALlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22
OKC 12–12 DALSeries tied · 24 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 3 meetings · OKC 13-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025-26 | OKC 100 @ DAL 87 | DAL +16.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 5, 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ OKC 132 | OKC -15.5 | OKC W |
| Oct 27, 2025-26 | OKC 101 @ DAL 94 | DAL +9.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | DAL 121 @ OKC 115 | OKC -11.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 17, 2024-25 | OKC 98 @ DAL 106 | DAL +2.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Thunder
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −15.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@
SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
over 1under 3avg −15.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
over 1under 3avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Thunder
4-0 overall · 4-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
- W@ Spurs116–104
2 days since their last game.
Mavericks
2-2 overall · 0-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
- L@ Rockets110–128
2 days since their last game.