Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#25INDPacers125final

Final

#18MIAHeat145▲ winner

Closing lineMIA -8.5✓ MIA covered by 11.5

Closing total236.5Over by 33.5

Season records: Pacers and Heat
IND	This season	MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
3-2	ATS	1-4
2-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IND 115–120 MIA · ✓ MIA (65%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IND	42	19	27	37	125
MIA	36	32	35	42	145

1st half: IND 61, MIA 68 (MIA by 7). The model had MIA by 2.9 and a total of 117.7 (actual 129).

Team stats

IND		MIA
44-91 48%	Field goals	54-92 59%
17-37 46%	3-pointers	18-40 45%
20-27 74%	Free throws	19-23 83%
37 14 off	Rebounds	47 14 off
28	Assists	38
11	Steals	8
2	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	16
21	Fouls	20
50	Points in paint	64
18	Fast-break points	14

Players

IND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Andrew Nembhard G	30	22	2	9	-28
Pascal Siakam F	29	13	5	4	-25
Kelly Oubre Jr. G	22	10	4	1	-20
Aaron Nesmith G	21	9	3	2	-25
Jay Huff C	19	13	1	0	-19
Bench
Jarace Walker F	28	14	6	4	+5
Quenton Jackson G	24	24	4	1	-2
Kobe Brown G	20	9	6	4	+2
Larry Nance Jr. F	18	6	2	1	-1
Jalen Slawson F	18	4	4	1	+5
Braden Smith G	12	1	0	1	+8

Did not play: Obi Toppin (LOWER BACK SORENESS), Ivica Zubac (COACH'S DECISION)

MIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Davion Mitchell G	35	15	6	11	+32
Bam Adebayo C	33	27	9	3	+7
Giannis Antetokounmpo F	31	31	18	10	+31
Andrew Wiggins F	30	12	2	1	+25
Klay Thompson G	26	25	0	3	+19
Bench
Pelle Larsson G	24	18	3	3	-3
Bobby Portis F	17	8	3	1	-11
Nikola Jovic F	16	0	4	3	+12
Tim Hardaway Jr. G	12	2	1	1	-1
Ryan Conwell G	7	4	0	0	-4
Dru Smith G	4	0	0	1	-7
Nick Richards C	2	0	0	0	0
Myron Gardner F	2	0	1	1	0
Simone Fontecchio F	2	3	1	0	0

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketMIA -8.5

ModelMIA -5.4

Model edgeIND +3.1

L MIA covered

Total

Market236.5

Model235.4

Model edgeUnder 1.1

L Over

Projected score

IND 115 · MIA 120.4

IND 125 · MIA 145

Win probability

MIA 65%

1st half

Spread

MIA -2.9

MIA -7.0

Total

117.7

129 points

Projected score

IND 57.4 · MIA 60.3

IND 61 · MIA 68

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -3.5

5 → MIA

CloseMIA -8.5

5 pts toward MIA

Total

Open241.5

▼ 5

Close236.5

Down 5 since the open

Moneyline

IND +260 · MIA -325

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened MIA -3.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -5.5

model MIA -5.5

Oct 22line modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	IND	MIA	Over	Under	IND	MIA
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	241.5-115	241.5-105	+124	-148

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-0
MIA LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUOUU	2-3	40%	2-3
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
MIAlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

IND 9–8 MIAIND leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · IND has won the last 2 meetings · IND 9-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	MIA 118 @ IND 135	IND +8.5	IND W
Jan 10, 2025-26	MIA 99 @ IND 123	IND +6.5	IND W
Dec 27, 2025-26	IND 116 @ MIA 142	MIA -6.5	MIA W
Feb 28, 2024-25	IND 120 @ MIA 125	MIA +2.5	MIA W
Jan 2, 2024-25	IND 128 @ MIA 115	MIA -2.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

over 2under 3avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −9.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

over 2under 3avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers @ Heat

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Heat

Pacers

Heat