State Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game
Closing line
ATL -2.5✓ MIA covered by 14.5
ATL -2.5✓ MIA covered by 14.5Closing total243.5Over by 2.5
 MIA | This season | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-4 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 1-3 | O/U | 3-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 115–124 ATL · ✗ ATL (75%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 34 | 35 | 28 | 32 | 129 |
| ATL | 25 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 117 |
1st half: MIA 69, ATL 56 (MIA by 13). The model had ATL by 5.1 and a total of 119.1 (actual 125).
Team stats
| MIA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 51-96 53% | Field goals | 46-96 48% |
| 11-29 38% | 3-pointers | 16-38 42% |
| 16-23 70% | Free throws | 9-14 64% |
| 52 12 off | Rebounds | 40 9 off |
| 36 | Assists | 35 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 6 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 17 | Fouls | 24 |
| 70 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 21 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell G | 34 | 10 | 1 | 10 | +8 |
| Bam Adebayo C | 33 | 24 | 9 | 3 | +22 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo F | 31 | 24 | 18 | 3 | -6 |
| Andrew Wiggins F | 29 | 18 | 2 | 2 | +8 |
| Klay Thompson G | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 |
| Bench | |||||
| Pelle Larsson G | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | +12 |
| Bobby Portis F | 23 | 11 | 9 | 4 | +9 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. G | 22 | 14 | 3 | 1 | -3 |
| Dru Smith G | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +4 |
| Nikola Jovic F | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +4 |
Did not play: Myron Gardner (COACH'S DECISION), Nick Richards (COACH'S DECISION), Simone Fontecchio (COACH'S DECISION), Ryan Conwell (COACH'S DECISION)
| ATL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson F | 36 | 12 | 9 | 11 | -23 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker G | 32 | 23 | 3 | 1 | +6 |
| Onyeka Okongwu F | 31 | 11 | 4 | 4 | -1 |
| Dyson Daniels G | 28 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -17 |
| CJ McCollum G | 20 | 13 | 2 | 1 | -8 |
| Bench | |||||
| Kingston Flemings G | 28 | 23 | 5 | 5 | -4 |
| Luguentz Dort G | 24 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Wiggins G | 24 | 10 | 4 | 3 | -2 |
| Jock Landale C | 17 | 10 | 6 | 0 | -11 |
Did not play: Corey Kispert (COACH'S DECISION), Asa Newell (COACH'S DECISION), Zuby Ejiofor (COACH'S DECISION), Dorian Finney-Smith (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketATL -2.5
ModelATL -9.3
Model edgeATL +6.8
L MIA covered
Total
Market243.5
Model238.4
Model edgeUnder 5.1
L Over
Projected score
MIA 114.5 · ATL 123.8
MIA 129 · ATL 117
Win probability
ATL 75%
1st half
Spread
ATL -5.1
MIA -13.0
Total
119.1
125 points
Projected score
MIA 57 · ATL 62.1
MIA 69 · ATL 56
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenATL -3.5
1 → MIA
CloseATL -2.5
1 pt toward MIA
Total
Open239.5
▲ 4
Close243.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MIA +120 · ATL -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ATL -3.5 · closed ATL -2.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel ATL -9.5
model ATL -9.5
Opened 239.5 · closed 243.5 · moved 4 upmodel 238.5
model 238.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAlast 4 | 0-4 0% | 0-4 0% | 1-3 25% |
| ATLlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% | 3-1 75% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 27 since 2021-22
MIA 19–8 ATLMIA leads · 27 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings · MIA 17-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ MIA 143 | MIA -10.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 20, 2025-26 | MIA 128 @ ATL 97 | ATL +3.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 3, 2025-26 | ATL 127 @ MIA 115 | MIA -1.5 | ATL W |
| Dec 26, 2025-26 | MIA 126 @ ATL 111 | ATL -2.5 | MIA W |
| Apr 18, 2024-25 | MIA 123 @ ATL 114 | ATL +2.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Heat
4 games played
Straight up
0-4
0% wins
Against the spread
0-4
0% covers · avg −15.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vs
DAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
over 1under 3avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hawks
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +10.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
24
vs
HOU
HOUL 114-121
−5.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
−5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
+7.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
+1.5
over 3under 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Heat
0-4 overall · 0-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
- Lvs Timberwolves106–131
2 days since their last game.
Hawks
2-2 overall · 2-0 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets110–120
- Lvs Rockets114–121
- W@ Hornets128–81
- W@ Magic132–125
2 days since their last game.