Chase Center · at Warriors
LineNo line yet
Total—
 ORL | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects GS 118–113 · win probability GS 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GS has more of the edges
ORL 0, GS 6 · 2026-27 so far
GSBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, GS 70.4%
GSBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, GS 16.7%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, GS 17.6%
GSBigRecent form
Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
GSSmallORL offense vs GS defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmallGS offense vs ORL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSSmallHome court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away
Even
Three-pointers
ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 46.5% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, GS 28.8. Allowed: ORL 29.8, GS 27.3
Even
Rest
ORL 6 days since its last game, GS 6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -4.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.5
Model edge—
Projected score
ORL 113 · GS 117.6
Win probability
GS 63%
1st half
Spread
GS -2.4
Total
115.4
Projected score
ORL 56.5 · GS 58.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
ORL 4–6 GSGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025-26 | ORL 97 @ GS 120 | GS -6.5 | GS W |
| Nov 18, 2025-26 | GS 113 @ ORL 121 | ORL +2.5 | ORL W |
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | GS 121 @ ORL 115 | ORL +4.5 | GS W |
| Feb 3, 2024-25 | ORL 99 @ GS 104 | GS -3.5 | GS W |
| Mar 27, 2023-24 | GS 101 @ ORL 93 | ORL -3.5 | GS W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Warriors has the better starters
Position by position: Magic 1, Warriors 3, even 1
MagicBetterWarriors
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
=Even
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
→GSBig
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
←ORLBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
→GSBig
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
→GSBig
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
MagicBetterWarriors
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
→GSSmall
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
→GSSmall
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
→GSBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
←ORLSmall
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→GSBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORL betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
ORL107.7 #26GS117.7 #11Points per possession
ORL1.07 #21GS1.17 #3Pace (possessions)
ORL101.9 #22GS101.4 #25Shooting
Effective FG%
ORL53.4 #15GS55.3 #83-point %
ORL35.4 #11GS40.0 #23-point attempt rate
ORL46.5 #6GS47.1 #5Free throw rate
ORL31.7 #9GS28.8 #15Possessions
Turnover rate
ORL17.0 #24GS16.7 #22Offensive rebound rate
ORL23.4 #26GS33.2 #1Assists per game
ORL26.3 #16GS27.4 #10Defense
Points allowed
ORL116.7 #22GS114.9 #16Points allowed per possession
ORL1.13 #24GS1.13 #21Opponent effective FG%
ORL53.0 #13GS56.0 #25Opponent 3-point %
ORL34.6 #13GS35.2 #16Turnovers forced
ORL13.6 #26GS17.6 #5Defensive rebound rate
ORL68.9 #26GS70.4 #23Steals per game
ORL7.0 #26GS9.1 #11Blocks per game
ORL4.2 #23GS4.1 #24| ORL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 107.7 #26 | Points per game | 117.7 #11 |
| 1.07 #21 | Points per possession | 1.17 #3 |
| 101.9 #22 | Pace (possessions) | 101.4 #25 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.4 #15 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #8 |
| 35.4 #11 | 3-point % | 40.0 #2 |
| 46.5 #6 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #5 |
| 31.7 #9 | Free throw rate | 28.8 #15 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #24 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #22 |
| 23.4 #26 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.2 #1 |
| 26.3 #16 | Assists per game | 27.4 #10 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.7 #22 | Points allowed | 114.9 #16 |
| 1.13 #24 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #21 |
| 53.0 #13 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.0 #25 |
| 34.6 #13 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.2 #16 |
| 13.6 #26 | Turnovers forced | 17.6 #5 |
| 68.9 #26 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.4 #23 |
| 7.0 #26 | Steals per game | 9.1 #11 |
| 4.2 #23 | Blocks per game | 4.1 #24 |
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
6 days since their last game.
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
6 days since their last game.