Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Thunder
WSH	This season	OKC
3-3	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 117–107 · win probability OKC 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

WSH 3, OKC 5 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

WSH offense vs OKC defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, OKC 71.4%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, OKC 21.8. Allowed: WSH 21.8, OKC 23.4

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, OKC 15.8%

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 37.6% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs WSH defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ DET	L95–117LU
Nov 11	@ IND	W131–118WO
Nov 12	vs DET	L95–117LU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ POR	W124–95WU
Nov 11	@ POR	W124–95WU
Nov 13	@ LAC	W108–101LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 2–8 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 8 meetings · WSH 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	OKC 132 @ WSH 111	WSH +21.5	WSH W
Oct 30, 2025-26	WSH 108 @ OKC 127	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Jan 12, 2024-25	OKC 136 @ WSH 95	WSH +15.5	OKC W
Dec 23, 2024-25	WSH 105 @ OKC 123	OKC -17.5	OKC W
Feb 23, 2023-24	WSH 106 @ OKC 147	OKC -15.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Thunder 2, even 2

WizardsBetterThunder

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

Even

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

WizardsBetterThunder

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

OKCSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

OKC6.3 #7

WSH		OKC
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.05 #23
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
29.3 #29	3-point %	30.9 #26
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
24.5 #24	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
7.2 #24	Steals per game	8.3 #20
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Thunder