Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

#23CHAHornets79final

Final

#24WSHWizards95▲ winner

Closing lineWSH -1.5✓ WSH covered by 14.5

Closing total218.5Under by 44.5

Season records: Hornets and Wizards
CHA	This season	WSH
3-2	Record	2-3
3-2	ATS	2-3
0-5	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHA 114–111 WSH · ✗ CHA (57%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CHA	26	20	13	20	79
WSH	22	29	28	16	95

1st half: CHA 46, WSH 51 (WSH by 5). The model had CHA by 1.6 and a total of 112.7 (actual 97).

Team stats

CHA		WSH
30-101 30%	Field goals	28-73 38%
12-56 21%	3-pointers	10-30 33%
7-12 58%	Free throws	29-35 83%
55 18 off	Rebounds	53 9 off
22	Assists	18
12	Steals	6
1	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	15
27	Fouls	17
28	Points in paint	28
7	Fast-break points	11

Players

CHA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Brandon Miller F	37	19	7	2	-15
Naz Reid C	31	12	11	1	-4
Moussa Diabate F	31	10	12	1	-7
Dennis Schroder G	29	8	2	8	-11
Sion James G	29	6	5	4	-5
Bench
Grayson Allen G	21	5	3	2	-17
Royce O'Neale F	17	7	3	1	-5
Ryan Kalkbrenner C	15	2	4	0	-11
Christian Anderson G	14	4	3	3	-6
Tidjane Salaun F	9	6	2	0	-3
Liam McNeeley G	3	0	2	0	0
PJ Hall C	2	0	1	0	+2
Hannes Steinbach F	2	0	0	0	+2

WSH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Trae Young G	38	21	7	9	+13
Anthony Davis F	34	25	13	1	+13
Kyshawn George F	32	12	3	3	+14
AJ Dybantsa F	30	17	8	1	+7
Alex Sarr C	29	3	8	0	+22
Bench
Bilal Coulibaly G	22	1	5	1	+4
Bub Carrington G	20	9	4	2	+2
Deandre Ayton C	17	3	3	1	+2
Tre Johnson G	13	4	2	0	+4
Khris Middleton F	5	0	0	0	+3
Will Riley G	1	0	0	0	-2
Tre Mann G	1	0	0	0	-2

Did not play: Anthony Gill (COACH'S DECISION)

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketWSH -1.5

ModelCHA -2.5

Model edgeCHA +4.0

L WSH covered

Total

Market218.5

Model224.8

Model edgeOver 6.3

L Under

Projected score

CHA 113.7 · WSH 111.2

CHA 79 · WSH 95

Win probability

CHA 57%

1st half

Spread

CHA -1.6

WSH -5.0

Total

112.7

97 points

Projected score

CHA 57.1 · WSH 55.6

CHA 46 · WSH 51

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -1.5

no move

CloseWSH -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open235.5

▼ 17

Close218.5

Down 17 since the open

Moneyline

CHA -115 · WSH -105

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened WSH -1.5 · unchangedmodel CHA -2.5

model CHA -2.5

Oct 22line modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (the sportsbooks’ median). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CHA	WSH	Over	Under	CHA	WSH
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-115	+1.5-105	235.5-110	235.5-110	-105	-115

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WLWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-2
WSH WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: CHA away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUU	0-5	0%	3-2
WSH OUUUU	1-4	20%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	0-5 0%
WSHlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

CHA 11–10 WSHCHA leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 5 meetings · CHA 10-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	WSH 103 @ CHA 110	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Feb 22, 2025-26	CHA 129 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	CHA W
Jan 24, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ CHA 119	CHA -11.5	WSH W
Dec 23, 2025-26	WSH 109 @ CHA 126	CHA -6.5	CHA W
Oct 26, 2025-26	CHA 139 @ WSH 113	WSH -1.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −13.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

over 0under 5avg −13.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

over 1under 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets @ Wizards

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Wizards

Hornets

Wizards