Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

#28CHIBulls111final

Final

#5BOSCeltics125▲ winner

Closing lineBOS -14.5✓ CHI covered by 0.5

Closing total236.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Bulls and Celtics
CHI	This season	BOS
1-4	Record	3-1
2-3	ATS	2-2
2-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHI 108–126 BOS · ✓ BOS (91%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CHI	25	24	25	37	111
BOS	44	34	21	26	125

1st half: CHI 49, BOS 78 (BOS by 29). The model had BOS by 10.3 and a total of 116.9 (actual 127).

Team stats

CHI		BOS
35-92 38%	Field goals	42-82 51%
15-50 30%	3-pointers	10-32 31%
26-40 65%	Free throws	31-40 78%
51 20 off	Rebounds	41 9 off
24	Assists	28
7	Steals	10
6	Blocks	2
16	Turnovers	15
33	Fouls	27
40	Points in paint	58
16	Fast-break points	17

Players

CHI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Norman Powell G	31	16	2	3	-4
Caleb Wilson F	31	23	5	4	-3
Jalen Smith F	27	5	12	1	+3
Josh Giddey G	25	13	4	5	+2
Matas Buzelis F	20	14	5	1	-14
Bench
Tre Jones G	20	12	4	4	-22
Isaac Okoro F	18	6	3	2	+4
Buddy Hield G	17	5	3	1	-10
Noa Essengue F	16	10	4	0	-9
Tobe Awaka F	12	2	7	1	-1
Leonard Miller F	11	2	2	1	-18
Jordan Hawkins G	6	0	0	0	+2
Jaylin Sellers G	3	3	0	1	+6
Zach Collins F	2	0	0	0	-6

Did not play: Patrick Williams (COACH'S DECISION)

BOS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Jayson Tatum F	35	26	7	7	+5
Paul George F	27	18	6	8	+8
Derrick White G	26	9	2	4	+16
Mitchell Robinson C	19	11	4	0	-3
Jordan Walsh G	11	2	2	0	+3
Bench
Payton Pritchard G	35	30	3	3	+12
Baylor Scheierman G	23	2	3	3	+2
Neemias Queta C	20	13	6	0	+16
Sam Hauser F	18	6	3	2	+12
Hugo Gonzalez G	15	0	2	0	+4
Luka Garza C	7	5	1	1	+5
Ron Harper Jr. G	3	0	0	0	-6
Chris Cenac Jr. F	2	3	2	0	-4

Did not play: Mike Conley (COACH'S DECISION)

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketBOS -14.5

ModelBOS -18.6

Model edgeBOS +4.1

L CHI covered

Total

Market236.5

Model233.8

Model edgeUnder 2.7

W Under

Projected score

CHI 107.6 · BOS 126.2

CHI 111 · BOS 125

Win probability

BOS 91%

1st half

Spread

BOS -10.3

BOS -29.0

Total

116.9

127 points

Projected score

CHI 53.3 · BOS 63.6

CHI 49 · BOS 78

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOS -11.5

3 → BOS

CloseBOS -14.5

3 pts toward BOS

Total

Open232.5

▲ 4

Close236.5

Up 4 since the open

Moneyline

CHI +550 · BOS -800

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened BOS -11.5 · unchangedmodel BOS -18.5

model BOS -18.5

Oct 22line modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CHI	BOS	Over	Under	CHI	BOS
DraftKingsDK	-11.5-110	+11.5-110	232.5-110	232.5-110	+425	-575

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-2
BOS LWWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; BOS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UOUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
BOS OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
BOSlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHI 5–13 BOSBOS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 2 meetings · CHI 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	CHI 99 @ BOS 134	BOS -14.5	BOS W
Feb 11, 2025-26	CHI 105 @ BOS 124	BOS -13.5	BOS W
Jan 24, 2025-26	BOS 111 @ CHI 114	CHI +3.5	CHI W
Jan 5, 2025-26	CHI 101 @ BOS 115	BOS -10.5	BOS W
Jan 29, 2024-25	CHI 100 @ BOS 122	BOS -14.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −9.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

over 2under 3avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

over 2under 2avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bulls @ Celtics

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Celtics

Bulls

Celtics