Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#4DETPistons110▲ winner

Final

#27BKNNets94final

Closing lineDET -8.5✓ DET covered by 7.5

Closing total222.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Pistons and Nets
DET	This season	BKN
4-1	Record	0-4
4-1	ATS	2-2
2-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DET 118–105 BKN · ✓ DET (81%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DET	21	35	36	18	110
BKN	28	21	17	28	94

1st half: DET 56, BKN 49 (DET by 7). The model had DET by 7.2 and a total of 111.7 (actual 105).

Team stats

DET		BKN
38-90 42%	Field goals	31-77 40%
12-41 29%	3-pointers	11-37 30%
22-28 79%	Free throws	21-26 81%
41 9 off	Rebounds	50 9 off
25	Assists	20
14	Steals	8
3	Blocks	10
12	Turnovers	24
19	Fouls	23
48	Points in paint	36
27	Fast-break points	11

Players

DET	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Paul Reed F	31	12	4	1	-1
Cade Cunningham G	28	20	5	4	+10
Duncan Robinson F	26	17	4	2	+14
John Collins F	26	4	9	0	+18
Ausar Thompson G	26	11	8	6	+2
Bench
Kevin Huerter G	24	8	1	3	+13
Daniss Jenkins G	24	6	3	5	+10
Ronald Holland II F	22	18	3	2	+14
Javonte Green G	22	6	3	1	+20
Chaz Lanier G	3	6	0	0	-5
Tolu Smith F	3	2	1	1	-5
Isaac Jones C	3	0	0	0	-5
Ebuka Okorie G	3	0	0	0	-5

Did not play: Elijah Harkless (COACH'S DECISION), Taurean Prince (COACH'S DECISION)

BKN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Nolan Traore G	26	9	2	2	-7
Michael Porter Jr. F	26	13	7	1	-25
Julius Randle F	25	15	8	3	-10
Day'Ron Sharpe C	24	3	7	1	-3
Chaney Johnson F	19	6	2	0	-8
Bench
Moritz Wagner C	23	16	8	1	-7
Mikel Brown Jr. G	23	10	0	4	-9
Noah Clowney F	22	3	8	1	-20
Keon Ellis G	21	6	2	1	-4
Danny Wolf F	12	9	6	2	+10
Terance Mann G	12	2	0	2	+10
Drake Powell G	6	0	0	2	+6
Josh Minott F	3	2	0	0	-13

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketDET -8.5

ModelDET -12.4

Model edgeDET +3.9

W DET covered

Total

Market222.5

Model222.7

Model edgeOver 0.2

L Under

Projected score

DET 117.6 · BKN 105.1

DET 110 · BKN 94

Win probability

DET 81%

1st half

Spread

DET -7.2

DET -7.0

Total

111.7

105 points

Projected score

DET 59.4 · BKN 52.3

DET 56 · BKN 49

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8.5

no move

CloseDET -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open225.5

▼ 3

Close222.5

Down 3 since the open

Moneyline

DET -310 · BKN +250

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened DET -8.5 · closed DET -7.5 · moved 1 toward BKNmodel DET -12.5

model DET -12.5

Openline modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	DET	BKN	Over	Under	DET	BKN
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-118	-7.5-102	225.5-110	225.5-110	-310	+250

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-0
BKN LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; BKN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOUUU	2-3	40%	4-1
BKN UOOO	3-1	75%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%
BKNlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DET 8–10 BKNBKN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DET 13-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	DET 138 @ BKN 100	BKN +15.5	DET W
Mar 7, 2025-26	BKN 107 @ DET 105	DET -13.5	BKN W
Feb 1, 2025-26	BKN 77 @ DET 130	DET -13.5	DET W
Nov 7, 2025-26	DET 125 @ BKN 107	BKN +10.5	DET W
Mar 1, 2024-25	BKN 94 @ DET 115	DET -12.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −10.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

over 2under 3avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +12.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

over 3under 1avg +12.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons @ Nets

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Nets

Pistons

Nets