New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

#8NYKnicks93final

Final

#16PHI76ers98▲ winner

Closing linePHI -2.5✓ PHI covered by 2.5

Closing total224.5Under by 33.5

Season records: Knicks and 76ers
NY	This season	PHI
2-3	Record	4-1
1-4	ATS	2-3
1-4	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NY 111–107 PHI · ✗ NY (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NY	21	23	24	25	93
PHI	29	24	24	21	98

1st half: NY 44, PHI 53 (PHI by 9). The model had NY by 1.9 and a total of 109.5 (actual 97).

Team stats

NY		PHI
35-86 41%	Field goals	37-75 49%
13-41 32%	3-pointers	12-34 35%
10-14 71%	Free throws	12-16 75%
45 14 off	Rebounds	39 5 off
23	Assists	26
8	Steals	7
2	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	14
15	Fouls	15
34	Points in paint	36
5	Fast-break points	10

Players

NY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Jalen Brunson G	35	24	5	6	-5
Karl-Anthony Towns C	35	22	12	3	+2
OG Anunoby F	34	9	4	3	-4
Josh Hart G	31	7	6	3	-10
Mikal Bridges G	30	12	5	2	-6
Bench
Miles McBride G	24	10	3	1	-1
Landry Shamet G	16	0	0	0	-7
Tyler Kolek G	13	2	1	4	+2
Andre Drummond C	12	3	6	1	-1
Jordan Clarkson G	9	4	3	0	+5

Did not play: Tyler Nickel (COACH'S DECISION), Dalton Knecht (COACH'S DECISION), Jaden Akins (COACH'S DECISION), Pacome Dadiet (COACH'S DECISION), Mohamed Diawara (COACH'S DECISION), James Wiseman (COACH'S DECISION)

PHI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Tyrese Maxey G	38	27	4	4	-1
VJ Edgecombe G	36	13	8	2	+4
LeBron James F	34	20	9	8	+8
Joel Embiid C	33	10	7	7	+8
Dean Wade F	27	0	2	1	-6
Bench
Anfernee Simons G	31	21	2	1	+6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope G	21	5	3	3	+9
Adem Bona C	14	0	2	0	-6
Labaron Philon Jr. G	6	2	2	0	+3

Did not play: Justin Edwards (COACH'S DECISION), Rayan Rupert (COACH'S DECISION), Caleb Love (COACH'S DECISION)

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketPHI -2.5

ModelNY -3.2

Model edgeNY +5.7

L PHI covered

Total

Market224.5

Model217.9

Model edgeUnder 6.6

W Under

Projected score

NY 110.5 · PHI 107.3

NY 93 · PHI 98

Win probability

NY 59%

1st half

Spread

NY -1.9

PHI -9.0

Total

109.5

97 points

Projected score

NY 55.7 · PHI 53.8

NY 44 · PHI 53

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -1.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -2.5

1 pt toward PHI

Total

Open231.5

▼ 7

Close224.5

Down 7 since the open

Moneyline

NY -155 · PHI +130

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened PHI -1.5 · closed PHI -2.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel NY -3

model NY -3

Openline modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (the sportsbooks’ median). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NY	PHI	Over	Under	NY	PHI
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	231.5-110	231.5-110	+105	-125

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLLWL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-1
PHI WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: NY away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3
PHI UUOUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	1-4 20%
PHIlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 31 since 2021-22

NY 21–10 PHINY leads · 31 games since 2021-22 · NY 18-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 20, 2026-27	PHI 106 @ NY 100	NY -4.5	PHI W
May 10, 2025-26	NY 144 @ PHI 114	PHI +1.5	NY W
May 8, 2025-26	NY 108 @ PHI 94	PHI -3.5	NY W
May 6, 2025-26	PHI 102 @ NY 108	NY -10.5	PHI W
May 4, 2025-26	PHI 98 @ NY 137	NY -7.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

over 1under 4avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −15.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

over 1under 4avg −15.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks @ 76ers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

76ers

Knicks

76ers