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NBA · Wed, Nov 11

Thunder @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
#6OKCThunder
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OKCThis seasonPOR
4-2Record4-1
3-3ATS3-2
1-5O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 114–109 · win probability POR 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 222.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

OKC 2, POR 6 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Three-pointers
OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 35.8% and 51.5% of their shots
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, POR 35.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, POR 27.8
OKCSmall
POR offense vs OKC defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
OKC offense vs POR defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, POR 77.3%
OKCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, POR 14.6%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, POR 14.8%
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -4.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model222.6
Model edge—
Projected score
OKC 109.2 · POR 113.5
Win probability
POR 62%
1st half
Spread
POR -2.3
Total
111.7
Projected score
OKC 54.7 · POR 57
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Thunder 1, Trail Blazers 1, even 3
ThunderBetterTrail Blazers
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88
Even
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99
OKCBig
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8
PORBig
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40
Even
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88
Even
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
ThunderBetterTrail Blazers
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
PORSmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
OKCSmall
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
OKCBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
PORBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOKC betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Thunder
Guards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
OKCPOR
Scoring
106.5Points per game120.6
1.05Points per possession1.16
101.1Pace (possessions)103.5
Shooting
49.5Effective FG%56.2
30.93-point %35.3
35.83-point attempt rate51.5
21.8Free throw rate35.9
Possessions
14.5Turnover rate14.6
28.5Offensive rebound rate27.6
21.7Assists per game26.2
Defense
107.0Points allowed109.2
1.06Points allowed per possession1.06
51.0Opponent effective FG%51.3
35.3Opponent 3-point %32.1
15.8Turnovers forced14.8
71.4Defensive rebound rate77.3
8.3Steals per game8.6
6.3Blocks per game4.2
OKCPOR
Scoring
106.5 #29Points per game120.6 #4
1.05 #23Points per possession1.16 #5
101.1 #27Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
49.5 #28Effective FG%56.2 #4
30.9 #263-point %35.3 #12
35.8 #293-point attempt rate51.5 #1
21.8 #28Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
14.5 #7Turnover rate14.6 #9
28.5 #10Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
21.7 #29Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
107.0 #5Points allowed109.2 #10
1.06 #7Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
51.0 #6Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
35.3 #17Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
15.8 #13Turnovers forced14.8 #20
71.4 #18Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
8.3 #20Steals per game8.6 #18
6.3 #7Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Rockets98–119
  • L@ Mavericks96–120
  • Wvs Suns125–114
  • Wvs Clippers108–101
  • Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.