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NBA · Tue, Nov 17

Trail Blazers @ Timberwolves

Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#2MINTimberwolves
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonMIN
4-1Record4-3
3-2ATS6-1
2-3O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 117–112 · win probability MIN 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

POR 1, MIN 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, MIN 26.1. Allowed: POR 27.8, MIN 28.9
MINSmall
MIN offense vs POR defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
MINSmall
Home court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, POR 3-0 away
MINSmall
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 51.5% and 42.8% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
Even
POR offense vs MIN defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, MIN 75.4%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: POR 14.8%, MIN 15.6%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -5.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.8
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 111.6 · MIN 117.2
Win probability
MIN 66%
1st half
Spread
MIN -3.0
Total
114.5
Projected score
POR 55.8 · MIN 58.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 1, Timberwolves 3, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterTimberwolves
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORBig
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
MINBig
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
Even
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
MINBig
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
MINSmall
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
Trail BlazersBetterTimberwolves
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Even
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
MINSmall
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
PORMIN
Scoring
120.6Points per game120.0
1.16Points per possession1.13
103.5Pace (possessions)105.4
Shooting
56.2Effective FG%55.8
35.33-point %37.6
51.53-point attempt rate42.8
35.9Free throw rate26.1
Possessions
14.6Turnover rate15.1
27.6Offensive rebound rate30.0
26.2Assists per game27.3
Defense
109.2Points allowed108.7
1.06Points allowed per possession1.04
51.3Opponent effective FG%50.5
32.1Opponent 3-point %31.2
14.8Turnovers forced15.6
77.3Defensive rebound rate75.4
8.6Steals per game9.0
4.2Blocks per game4.3
PORMIN
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game120.0 #6
1.16 #5Points per possession1.13 #8
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)105.4 #9
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%55.8 #6
35.3 #123-point %37.6 #6
51.5 #13-point attempt rate42.8 #16
35.9 #3Free throw rate26.1 #21
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate15.1 #12
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate30.0 #7
26.2 #17Assists per game27.3 #11
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed108.7 #8
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.04 #4
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%50.5 #5
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %31.2 #6
14.8 #20Turnovers forced15.6 #17
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate75.4 #8
8.6 #18Steals per game9.0 #13
4.2 #21Blocks per game4.3 #20
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.