Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

LineCLE -3.5moved 1 toward OKC

Total229.5up 2 from 227.5

Season records: Thunder and Cavaliers
OKC	This season	CLE
4-2	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 114–112 · win probability CLE 54%

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

Line

CLE -3.5

moved 1 toward OKC

Total

229.5

model 225.9 · Under by 3.5

Model edge

OKC by 2

model vs market

Public on the spread

92% CLE

92% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

OKC 1, CLE 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 35.8% and 43.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, CLE 28.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, CLE 14.1%

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

OKC offense vs CLE defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, CLE 73.9%

Even

CLE offense vs OKC defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rest

OKC 2 days since its last game, CLE 2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	533	67%	52%	51%
Games with a total of 225 to 229.5	827	68%	50%	52%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	0-1
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: OKC away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs CLE	W121–113WO
Nov 6	@ MEM	W117–116LO
Nov 7	vs WSH	W132–111LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ OKC	L113–121LO
Nov 6	vs PHI	L106–114LU
Nov 7	vs NY	L93–130LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 6–4 CLEOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 3 meetings · OKC 7-2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	CLE 113 @ OKC 121	OKC +4.5	OKC W
Jan 19, 2025-26	OKC 136 @ CLE 104	CLE +6.5	OKC W
Jan 16, 2024-25	CLE 114 @ OKC 134	OKC -2.5	OKC W
Jan 8, 2024-25	OKC 122 @ CLE 129	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Nov 8, 2023-24	CLE 120 @ OKC 128	OKC +2.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Thunder 1, Cavaliers 1, even 3

ThunderBetterCavaliers

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

Even

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

ThunderBetterCavaliers

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

Even

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

CLESmall

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

CLE6.3 #6

OKC		CLE
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.14 #7
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
30.9 #26	3-point %	37.0 #8
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
21.7 #29	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
8.3 #20	Steals per game	7.8 #22
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

2 days since their last game.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

2 days since their last game.

Thunder @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Cavaliers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Cavaliers