Rocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game
Line
CLE -1.5no move
CLE -1.5no moveTotal234.5no move
 PHI | This season | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-5 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects CLE 116–110 · win probability CLE 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
CLE -1.5
no move since the open
Total
234.5
model 226.3 · Under by 8
Model edge
CLE by 5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges
PHI 1, CLE 6 · 2026-27 so far
PHIBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, CLE 14.1%
CLEBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, CLE 73.9%
CLESmallCLE offense vs PHI defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points
CLESmallFree throws
Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, CLE 28.9. Allowed: PHI 28.5, CLE 23.2
CLESmallShooting
Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5
CLESmallThree-pointers
PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 39.5% and 43.6% of their shots
CLESmallHome court
CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, PHI 3-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
PHI offense vs CLE defense
Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rest
PHI 6 days since its last game, CLE 6
Even
Recent form
Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of under 3 | 474 | 51% | 47% | 44% |
| Conference games at this spread | 577 | 49% | 44% | 45% |
| Games with a total of 230 to 234.5 | 744 | 72% | 52% | 48% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketCLE -1.5
ModelCLE -6.3
Model edgeCLE +4.8
Total
Market234.5
Model226.3
Model edgeUnder 8.2
Projected score
PHI 110 · CLE 116.3
Win probability
CLE 67%
1st half
Spread
CLE -3.4
Total
113.4
Projected score
PHI 55 · CLE 58.4
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenCLE -1.5
no move
NowCLE -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open234.5
no move
Now234.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened CLE -1.5 · unchangedmodel CLE -6.5
model CLE -6.5
Opened 234.5 · unchangedmodel 226.5
model 226.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHIlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% | 2-5 29% |
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22
PHI 10–9 CLEPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI 11-7-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026-27 | CLE 106 @ PHI 114 | PHI -2.5 | PHI W |
| Mar 9, 2025-26 | PHI 101 @ CLE 115 | CLE -14.5 | PHI W |
| Jan 16, 2025-26 | CLE 117 @ PHI 115 | PHI -2.5 | CLE W |
| Jan 14, 2025-26 | CLE 133 @ PHI 107 | PHI +1.5 | CLE W |
| Nov 5, 2025-26 | PHI 121 @ CLE 132 | CLE -12.5 | PHI W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
76ers
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | @ NY | W 106-100 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 231.5 | U 206 |
| Oct 22 | vsCLE | W 114-106 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 237.5 | U 220 |
| Oct 24 | vs MIL | W 127-116 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 234.5 | O 243 |
| Oct 25 | vs DET | L 93-106 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 228.5 | U 199 |
| Oct 28 | @ IND | W 114-109 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 234.5 | U 223 |
| Oct 30 | vsNY | W 98-93 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 224.5 | U 191 |
| Oct 31 | @ CHA | W 109-104 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 211.5 | O 213 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@NY
NYW 106-100
+10.5
22
vsCLE
CLEW 114-106
+5.5
24
vsMIL
MILW 127-116
−1.5
25
vsDET
DETL 93-106
−11.5
28
@IND
INDW 114-109
−2.5
30
vsNY
NYW 98-93
+2.5
31
@CHA
CHAW 109-104
+3.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@NY
NYW 106-100
−25.5
22
vsCLE
CLEW 114-106
−17.5
24
vsMIL
MILW 127-116
+8.5
25
vsDET
DETL 93-106
−29.5
28
@IND
INDW 114-109
−11.5
30
vsNY
NYW 98-93
−33.5
31
@CHA
CHAW 109-104
+1.5
over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: 76ers 1, Cavaliers 1, even 3
76ersBetterCavaliers
G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast
Score 67
=Even
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 35
→CLEBig
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 96
=Even
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast
Score 54
←PHISmall
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 90
=Even
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
76ersBetterCavaliers
PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7
=Even
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0
→CLESmall
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players
=Even
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players
→CLEBig
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
Bench-19.8 · 5 players
→CLEBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPHI betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
76ersGuards
T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min
Forwards
L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min
Centers
A. Bona14 minT. FallNew
Out
J. EmbiidDay-To-Day
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
PHI108.7 #23CLE121.0 #2Points per possession
PHI1.06 #22CLE1.14 #7Pace (possessions)
PHI102.4 #19CLE106.2 #3Shooting
Effective FG%
PHI50.8 #25CLE55.3 #73-point %
PHI34.0 #20CLE37.0 #83-point attempt rate
PHI39.5 #23CLE43.6 #12Free throw rate
PHI28.7 #16CLE28.9 #13Possessions
Turnover rate
PHI12.3 #1CLE14.2 #6Offensive rebound rate
PHI19.9 #30CLE26.7 #20Assists per game
PHI25.1 #22CLE28.7 #4Defense
Points allowed
PHI104.9 #2CLE116.0 #20Points allowed per possession
PHI1.03 #3CLE1.09 #14Opponent effective FG%
PHI49.8 #4CLE52.5 #12Opponent 3-point %
PHI32.1 #9CLE33.7 #11Turnovers forced
PHI17.0 #9CLE14.1 #25Defensive rebound rate
PHI70.8 #21CLE73.9 #11Steals per game
PHI9.6 #7CLE7.8 #22Blocks per game
PHI5.0 #14CLE6.3 #6| PHI | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 108.7 #23 | Points per game | 121.0 #2 |
| 1.06 #22 | Points per possession | 1.14 #7 |
| 102.4 #19 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #3 |
| Shooting | ||
| 50.8 #25 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #7 |
| 34.0 #20 | 3-point % | 37.0 #8 |
| 39.5 #23 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.6 #12 |
| 28.7 #16 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #13 |
| Possessions | ||
| 12.3 #1 | Turnover rate | 14.2 #6 |
| 19.9 #30 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.7 #20 |
| 25.1 #22 | Assists per game | 28.7 #4 |
| Defense | ||
| 104.9 #2 | Points allowed | 116.0 #20 |
| 1.03 #3 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #14 |
| 49.8 #4 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.5 #12 |
| 32.1 #9 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.7 #11 |
| 17.0 #9 | Turnovers forced | 14.1 #25 |
| 70.8 #21 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.9 #11 |
| 9.6 #7 | Steals per game | 7.8 #22 |
| 5.0 #14 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #6 |
76ers
6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Hornets109–104
- Wvs Knicks98–93
- W@ Pacers114–109
- Lvs Pistons93–106
- Wvs Bucks127–116
6 days since their last game.
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
6 days since their last game.