Fiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game
Closing line
CLE -8.5✓ CLE covered by 16.5
CLE -8.5✓ CLE covered by 16.5Closing total234.5Over by 12.5
| CLE | This season | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 4-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CLE 121–112 MIL · ✓ CLE (73%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 24 | 48 | 37 | 27 | 136 |
| MIL | 25 | 21 | 30 | 35 | 111 |
1st half: CLE 72, MIL 46 (CLE by 26). The model had CLE by 5.0 and a total of 116.5 (actual 118).
Team stats
| CLE | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 52-100 52% | Field goals | 41-100 41% |
| 20-46 43% | 3-pointers | 17-51 33% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 12-18 67% |
| 56 14 off | Rebounds | 45 15 off |
| 41 | Assists | 33 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 60 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| CLE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden G | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | +17 |
| Evan Mobley C | 25 | 27 | 5 | 3 | +6 |
| Donovan Mitchell G | 24 | 15 | 4 | 3 | +31 |
| Jarrett Allen C | 24 | 25 | 11 | 4 | +24 |
| Peyton Watson G | 22 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +11 |
| Bench | |||||
| Meleek Thomas G | 23 | 13 | 1 | 2 | +11 |
| Mario Hezonja F | 20 | 8 | 11 | 4 | +15 |
| Sam Merrill G | 19 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +24 |
| Tyrese Proctor G | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | +3 |
| Craig Porter Jr. G | 16 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Thomas Bryant C | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | -9 |
| Riley Minix F | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 |
| Tristan Enaruna F | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -4 |
| MIL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro G | 27 | 15 | 3 | 2 | -19 |
| Ryan Rollins G | 26 | 9 | 3 | 7 | +4 |
| Myles Turner C | 24 | 10 | 7 | 2 | -11 |
| Kyle Kuzma F | 23 | 14 | 3 | 3 | -16 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. F | 23 | 8 | 7 | 5 | -15 |
| Bench | |||||
| Kel'el Ware C | 24 | 19 | 10 | 3 | -14 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis G | 21 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -18 |
| Brayden Burries G | 21 | 14 | 3 | 1 | -19 |
| AJ Green G | 20 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -14 |
| Nate Ament F | 19 | 14 | 1 | 2 | -11 |
| Ousmane Dieng F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4 |
| Gary Trent Jr. G | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 |
Did not play: Caris LeVert (COACH'S DECISION), Kevin Porter Jr. (COACH'S DECISION), Jericho Sims (COACH'S DECISION), Bogoljub Markovic (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCLE -8.5
ModelCLE -8.5
Model edge—
CLE covered
Total
Market234.5
Model232.9
Model edgeUnder 1.6
L Over
Projected score
CLE 120.7 · MIL 112.2
CLE 136 · MIL 111
Win probability
CLE 73%
1st half
Spread
CLE -5.0
CLE -26.0
Total
116.5
118 points
Projected score
CLE 60.7 · MIL 55.8
CLE 72 · MIL 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCLE -9.5
1 → MIL
CloseCLE -8.5
1 pt toward MIL
Total
Open236.5
▼ 2
Close234.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
CLE -290 · MIL +235
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CLE -9.5 · closed CLE -8.5 · moved 1 toward MILmodel CLE -8.5 matches the line
model CLE -8.5 = line ✓
Opened 236.5 · closed 234.5 · moved 2 downmodel 233
model 233
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLElast 5 | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% | 2-3 40% |
| MILlast 5 | 1-4 20% | 2-3 40% | 4-1 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
CLE 14–6 MILCLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CLE 12-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025-26 | CLE 123 @ MIL 116 | MIL +12.5 | MIL W |
| Feb 25, 2025-26 | CLE 116 @ MIL 118 | MIL +3.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 17, 2025-26 | MIL 106 @ CLE 118 | CLE -5.5 | CLE W |
| Oct 26, 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ CLE 118 | CLE -6.5 | MIL W |
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | CLE 112 @ MIL 100 | MIL +7.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cavaliers
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
1-4
20% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
over 2under 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucks
5 games played
Straight up
1-4
20% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-1
80% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
over 4under 1avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cavaliers
3-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
- L@ 76ers106–114
2 days since their last game.
Bucks
1-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
- L@ Wizards116–128
3 days since their last game.