Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
Closing line
SA -12.5✓ MIN covered by 2.5
SA -12.5✓ MIN covered by 2.5Closing total230.5Over by 1.5
 MIN | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 1-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIN 111–116 SA · ✓ SA (63%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 33 | 27 | 23 | 111 |
| SA | 34 | 26 | 33 | 28 | 121 |
1st half: MIN 61, SA 60 (MIN by 1). The model had SA by 2.4 and a total of 113.8 (actual 121).
Team stats
| MIN | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-93 43% | Field goals | 43-87 49% |
| 9-33 27% | 3-pointers | 10-27 37% |
| 22-26 85% | Free throws | 25-31 81% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 49 16 off |
| 23 | Assists | 24 |
| 11 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 9 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 52 | Points in paint | 60 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| MIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kuminga F | 40 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaden McDaniels F | 39 | 19 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
| Ayo Dosunmu G | 38 | 27 | 9 | 3 | +1 |
| Joan Beringer F | 34 | 12 | 6 | 2 | -7 |
| LaMelo Ball G | 20 | 10 | 8 | 4 | -9 |
| Bench | |||||
| Jaylen Clark G | 20 | 10 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -13 |
| Trey Lyles F | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
| Bones Hyland G | 14 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -10 |
Did not play: Isaiah Evans (COACH'S DECISION), Cody Williams (COACH'S DECISION), Zyon Pullin (COACH'S DECISION)
| SA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper G | 39 | 25 | 7 | 6 | +10 |
| De'Aaron Fox G | 35 | 22 | 8 | 7 | +23 |
| Devin Vassell G | 34 | 9 | 5 | 2 | +1 |
| Victor Wembanyama F | 34 | 43 | 7 | 4 | +11 |
| Stephon Castle G | 22 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -2 |
| Bench | |||||
| Julian Champagnie F | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | +3 |
| Keldon Johnson F | 24 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +9 |
| Luke Kornet C | 14 | 2 | 8 | 0 | -1 |
| Carter Bryant F | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Did not play: Tarris Reed Jr. (COACH'S DECISION), Harrison Barnes (COACH'S DECISION), David Jones Garcia (COACH'S DECISION), Jordan McLaughlin (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSA -12.5
ModelSA -4.5
Model edgeMIN +8.0
W MIN covered
Total
Market230.5
Model227.1
Model edgeUnder 3.4
L Over
Projected score
MIN 111.3 · SA 115.8
MIN 111 · SA 121
Win probability
SA 63%
1st half
Spread
SA -2.4
MIN -1.0
Total
113.8
121 points
Projected score
MIN 55.7 · SA 58.1
MIN 61 · SA 60
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSA -11.5
1 → SA
CloseSA -12.5
1 pt toward SA
Total
Open227.5
▲ 3
Close230.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MIN +425 · SA -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SA -11.5 · closed SA -12.5 · moved 1 toward SAmodel SA -4.5
model SA -4.5
Opened 227.5 · closed 230.5 · moved 3 upmodel 227
model 227
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 5-1 83% | 3-3 50% |
| SAlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% | 1-4 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22
MIN 15–9 SAMIN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 10-14 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2025-26 | SA 139 @ MIN 109 | MIN +5.5 | SA W |
| May 12, 2025-26 | MIN 97 @ SA 126 | SA -10.5 | SA W |
| May 10, 2025-26 | SA 109 @ MIN 114 | MIN +5.5 | MIN W |
| May 8, 2025-26 | SA 115 @ MIN 108 | MIN +5.5 | SA W |
| May 6, 2025-26 | MIN 95 @ SA 133 | SA -10.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Timberwolves
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +13.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MIA
MIAW 131-106
+26.5
23
@
ORL
ORLW 115-93
+23.5
25
vs
TOR
TORW 117-94
+19.5
26
@
CLE
CLEL 125-127
+1.5
28
vs
GS
GSL 114-119
−8.5
30
vs
LAC
LACW 127-101
+19.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +13.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MIA
MIAW 131-106
−3.5
23
@ORL
ORLW 115-93
−26.5
25
vsTOR
TORW 117-94
−17.5
26
@CLE
CLEL 125-127
+17.5
28
vsGS
GSL 114-119
+5.5
30
vsLAC
LACW 127-101
+5.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
over 1under 4avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Timberwolves
4-2 overall · 1-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers127–101
- Lvs Warriors114–119
- L@ Cavaliers125–127
- Wvs Raptors117–94
- W@ Magic115–93
1 day since their last game.
Spurs
3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
- Lvs Thunder104–116
3 days since their last game.