Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
Closing line
HOU -2.5✓ HOU covered by 18.5
HOU -2.5✓ HOU covered by 18.5Closing total219.5Under by 2.5
 OKC | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 1-4 | O/U | 5-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OKC 109–111 HOU · ✓ HOU (55%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 98 |
| HOU | 35 | 27 | 30 | 27 | 119 |
1st half: OKC 51, HOU 62 (HOU by 11). The model had HOU by 0.8 and a total of 110.3 (actual 113).
Team stats
| OKC | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 37-85 44% | Field goals | 41-90 46% |
| 10-32 31% | 3-pointers | 18-41 44% |
| 14-15 93% | Free throws | 19-23 83% |
| 42 10 off | Rebounds | 44 13 off |
| 20 | Assists | 29 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| OKC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G | 31 | 26 | 4 | 3 | -7 |
| Jared McCain G | 28 | 10 | 4 | 2 | -9 |
| Ajay Mitchell G | 26 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -27 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein C | 25 | 10 | 7 | 0 | -10 |
| Kenrich Williams G | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | -12 |
| Bench | |||||
| Aday Mara C | 28 | 7 | 9 | 3 | -8 |
| Bennett Stirtz G | 26 | 11 | 1 | 3 | -12 |
| Jaylin Williams F | 26 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -21 |
| Micah Peavy G | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Josh Dix G | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Brooks Barnhizer F | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +3 |
Did not play: Otega Oweh (COACH'S DECISION)
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart G | 36 | 24 | 5 | 3 | +20 |
| Alperen Sengun C | 33 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +19 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. F | 33 | 30 | 9 | 5 | +33 |
| Amen Thompson G | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +4 |
| Kevin Durant F | 27 | 14 | 3 | 4 | +6 |
| Bench | |||||
| Tari Eason F | 19 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +10 |
| Isaiah Crawford F | 19 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +13 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 |
| Clint Capela C | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +3 |
| Jae'Sean Tate F | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 |
| Bruce Thornton G | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe C | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Did not play: Sean Pedulla (COACH'S DECISION), Reed Sheppard (COACH'S DECISION), Steven Adams (COACH'S DECISION), Fred VanVleet (COACH'S DECISION)
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -2.5
ModelHOU -1.7
Model edgeOKC +0.8
L HOU covered
Total
Market219.5
Model219.7
Model edgeOver 0.2
L Under
Projected score
OKC 109 · HOU 110.7
OKC 98 · HOU 119
Win probability
HOU 55%
1st half
Spread
HOU -0.8
HOU -11.0
Total
110.3
113 points
Projected score
OKC 54.8 · HOU 55.6
OKC 51 · HOU 62
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -4.5
2 → OKC
CloseHOU -2.5
2 pts toward OKC
Total
Open218.5
▲ 1
Close219.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
OKC +120 · HOU -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -4.5 · closed HOU -2.5 · moved 2 toward OKCmodel HOU -1.5
model HOU -1.5
Opened 218.5 · closed 219.5 · moved 1 upmodel 219.5 matches the line
model 219.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKClast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
| HOUlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
OKC 10–10 HOUSeries tied · 20 games since 2021-22 · OKC 8-12 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | HOU 112 @ OKC 106 | OKC -3.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 15, 2025-26 | OKC 111 @ HOU 91 | HOU +4.5 | OKC W |
| Oct 21, 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ OKC 125 | OKC -6.5 | HOU W |
| Apr 4, 2024-25 | OKC 111 @ HOU 125 | HOU +5.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 3, 2024-25 | HOU 128 @ OKC 137 | OKC -15.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Thunder
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −14.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@
SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@
DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
over 1under 4avg −14.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Rockets
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +6.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@
ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
28
@
MIL
MILW 132-100
+23.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
−10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+5.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
+3.5
over 5under 1avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Thunder
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
- W@ Spurs116–104
3 days since their last game.
Rockets
5-1 overall · 2-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Mavericks111–116
- W@ Bucks132–100
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
- W@ Spurs114–110
1 day since their last game.