State Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game
Closing line
ATL -1.5✓ ATL covered by 1.5
ATL -1.5✓ ATL covered by 1.5Closing total237.5Under by 12.5
 CLE | This season | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-3 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 4-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CLE 116–119 ATL · ✓ ATL (58%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 28 | 16 | 38 | 29 | 111 |
| ATL | 16 | 30 | 43 | 25 | 114 |
1st half: CLE 44, ATL 46 (ATL by 2). The model had ATL by 1.5 and a total of 117.8 (actual 90).
Team stats
| CLE | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-87 44% | Field goals | 42-95 44% |
| 13-42 31% | 3-pointers | 17-43 40% |
| 22-29 76% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 45 9 off | Rebounds | 53 15 off |
| 26 | Assists | 34 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| CLE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden G | 36 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Donovan Mitchell G | 33 | 22 | 3 | 3 | +1 |
| Evan Mobley C | 33 | 11 | 4 | 7 | -1 |
| Jarrett Allen C | 30 | 14 | 8 | 1 | +5 |
| Peyton Watson G | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -10 |
| Bench | |||||
| Sam Merrill G | 27 | 16 | 2 | 3 | +8 |
| Tyrese Proctor G | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | +5 |
| Jaylon Tyson G | 18 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja F | 17 | 10 | 6 | 2 | -13 |
| Craig Porter Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 |
Did not play: Riley Minix (COACH'S DECISION), Ernest Udeh Jr. (COACH'S DECISION), Thomas Bryant (COACH'S DECISION)
| ATL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson F | 34 | 17 | 8 | 7 | -3 |
| Onyeka Okongwu F | 33 | 29 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
| Dyson Daniels G | 32 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -3 |
| CJ McCollum G | 31 | 5 | 3 | 8 | +2 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker G | 31 | 25 | 3 | 1 | +1 |
| Bench | |||||
| Aaron Wiggins G | 24 | 20 | 7 | 3 | +17 |
| Luguentz Dort G | 22 | 6 | 3 | 2 | -3 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +1 |
| Jock Landale C | 15 | 6 | 10 | 1 | +3 |
Did not play: Zuby Ejiofor (COACH'S DECISION), Asa Newell (COACH'S DECISION), Corey Kispert (COACH'S DECISION), Dorian Finney-Smith (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketATL -1.5
ModelATL -2.9
Model edgeATL +1.4
W ATL covered
Total
Market237.5
Model235.7
Model edgeUnder 1.8
W Under
Projected score
CLE 116.4 · ATL 119.3
CLE 111 · ATL 114
Win probability
ATL 58%
1st half
Spread
ATL -1.5
ATL -2.0
Total
117.8
90 points
Projected score
CLE 58.2 · ATL 59.6
CLE 44 · ATL 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenATL -1.5
no move
CloseATL -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open239.5
▼ 2
Close237.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
CLE -102 · ATL -118
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ATL -1.5 · unchangedmodel ATL -3
model ATL -3
Opened 239.5 · closed 237.5 · moved 2 downmodel 235.5
model 235.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLElast 4 | 3-1 75% | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% |
| ATLlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 2-3 40% | 4-1 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22
CLE 8–11 ATLATL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · CLE 9-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2025-26 | CLE 102 @ ATL 124 | ATL -8.5 | ATL W |
| Apr 8, 2025-26 | ATL 116 @ CLE 122 | CLE -4.5 | CLE W |
| Nov 28, 2025-26 | CLE 123 @ ATL 130 | ATL +6.5 | ATL W |
| Nov 2, 2025-26 | ATL 109 @ CLE 117 | CLE -6.5 | CLE W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | ATL 115 @ CLE 137 | CLE -11.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cavaliers
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
over 2under 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hawks
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-1
80% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@
CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
24
vs
HOU
HOUL 114-121
−5.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
−5.5
28
vs
MIA
MIAL 117-129
−14.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
+7.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
+1.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 117-129
+2.5
over 4under 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cavaliers
3-1 overall · 2-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
- L@ 76ers106–114
1 day since their last game.
Hawks
2-3 overall · 2-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Heat117–129
- L@ Rockets110–120
- Lvs Rockets114–121
- W@ Hornets128–81
- W@ Magic132–125
1 day since their last game.