Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Knicks
CLE	This season	NY
4-2	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 114–111 · win probability NY 58%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 4, NY 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, NY 78.7%

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, NY 24.5. Allowed: CLE 23.2, NY 25.9

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 43.6% and 43.2% of their shots

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, NY 15.2%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, NY 13.2%

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

NY offense vs CLE defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

CLE offense vs NY defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ MIA	W149–128WO
Nov 14	vs DAL	L120–130LO
Nov 16	vs CHI	W115–110LU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ IND	W136–110WO
Nov 15	@ TOR	W112–95WU
Nov 17	@ TOR	W112–95WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

CLE 11–15 NYNY leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 4 meetings · CLE 11-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
May 25, 2025-26	NY 130 @ CLE 93	CLE +2.5	NY W
May 23, 2025-26	NY 121 @ CLE 108	—	—
May 21, 2025-26	CLE 93 @ NY 109	NY -5.5	NY W
May 19, 2025-26	CLE 104 @ NY 115	NY -6.5	NY W
Feb 24, 2025-26	NY 94 @ CLE 109	CLE -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Knicks 2, even 1

CavaliersBetterKnicks

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

NYSmall

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLESmall

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

NYBig

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLESmall

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

CavaliersBetterKnicks

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Even

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

CLE

Scoring

121.0Points per game107.0

1.14Points per possession1.05

106.2Pace (possessions)101.0

Shooting

55.3Effective FG%49.5

37.03-point %35.2

43.63-point attempt rate43.2

28.9Free throw rate24.5

Possessions

14.2Turnover rate15.2

26.7Offensive rebound rate30.3

28.7Assists per game26.2

Defense

116.0Points allowed107.7

1.09Points allowed per possession1.07

52.5Opponent effective FG%53.1

33.7Opponent 3-point %35.5

14.1Turnovers forced13.2

73.9Defensive rebound rate78.7

7.8Steals per game7.3

6.3Blocks per game4.0

CLE		NY
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.05 #24
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
37.0 #8	3-point %	35.2 #13
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
28.7 #4	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
7.8 #22	Steals per game	7.3 #23
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Knicks

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Knicks

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Knicks