New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNY -1.5no move

Total233.5no move

Season records: Knicks and Pacers
NY	This season	IND
2-4	Record	2-5
1-5	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 116–107 · win probability NY 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

NY -1.5

no move since the open

Total

233.5

model 223.2 · Under by 10.5

Model edge

NY by 7.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

NY 2, IND 3 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

IND offense vs NY defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, IND 72.7%

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, IND 14.8%. Forced: NY 13.2%, IND 14.9%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, NY 1-2 away

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 43.2% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, IND 31.2. Allowed: NY 25.9, IND 32.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

NY offense vs IND defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of under 3	379	51%	47%	49%
Conference games at this spread	577	49%	44%	45%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	1-3
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: NY away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ TOR	W112–95WU
Nov 17	@ TOR	W112–95WU
Nov 19	@ MIN	L104–115LU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ PHI	L109–114WU
Nov 18	vs HOU	L114–118WO
Nov 20	@ CLE	L108–117WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 31 since 2021-22

NY 16–15 INDNY leads · 31 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 2 meetings · NY 14-17 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 17, 2025-26	IND 110 @ NY 136	NY -13.5	NY W
Mar 13, 2025-26	NY 101 @ IND 92	IND +12.5	IND W
Feb 10, 2025-26	IND 137 @ NY 134	NY -11.5	IND W
Dec 18, 2025-26	NY 114 @ IND 113	IND +3.5	IND W
May 31, 2024-25	NY 108 @ IND 125	IND -3.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Pacers 0, even 2

KnicksBetterPacers

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

Even

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

KnicksBetterPacers

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Even

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

IND4.0 #26

NY		IND
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.10 #17
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
35.2 #13	3-point %	34.1 #18
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
26.2 #18	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
7.3 #23	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Pacers

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Pacers