New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Raptors
NY	This season	TOR
2-4	Record	3-3
1-5	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 110–109 · win probability TOR 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

NY 4, TOR 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: NY 13.2%, TOR 20.8%

TORBig

NY offense vs TOR defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

TOR offense vs NY defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, TOR 27.7. Allowed: NY 25.9, TOR 41.5

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.2% and 38.1% of their shots

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

NYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NY away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ MIN	L104–115LU
Nov 21	vs POR	W127–97WO
Nov 22	vs IND	W136–110WO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs WSH	W112–102WU
Nov 20	@ DET	L116–127LO
Nov 23	vs MIL	W122–94WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

NY 15–6 TORNY leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 13 meetings · NY 14-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	TOR 95 @ NY 112	NY -6.5	NY W
Mar 3, 2025-26	NY 111 @ TOR 95	TOR +2.5	NY W
Jan 28, 2025-26	NY 119 @ TOR 92	TOR -1.5	NY W
Dec 9, 2025-26	NY 117 @ TOR 101	TOR +6.5	NY W
Nov 30, 2025-26	TOR 94 @ NY 116	NY -8.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Raptors 1, even 1

KnicksBetterRaptors

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYSmall

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

KnicksBetterRaptors

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

TORSmall

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYSmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

TOR4.3 #19

NY		TOR
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.11 #13
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
35.2 #13	3-point %	32.0 #24
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
26.2 #18	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
7.3 #23	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Raptors

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Raptors

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Raptors