Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game

LineDET -1.5no move

Total227.5no move

Season records: Raptors and Pistons
TOR	This season	DET
3-3	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	5-1
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 112–108 · win probability DET 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

DET -1.5

no move since the open

Total

227.5

model 220.1 · Under by 7.5

Model edge

DET by 3

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

TOR 3, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

TOR offense vs DET defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.3% of their shots

DETBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, DET 28.9. Allowed: TOR 41.5, DET 28.1

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, DET 15.6%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, DET 17.1%

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, DET 72.8%

TORSmall

DET offense vs TOR defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	474	51%	47%	44%
Conference games at this spread	577	49%	44%	45%
Games with a total of 225 to 229.5	827	68%	50%	52%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	0-2
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: TOR away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs MIL	W122–94WU
Nov 27	vs BKN	W136–101WO
Nov 29	vs DEN	L115–121WU

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ ATL	L129–130LO
Nov 24	@ ORL	W116–94WO
Nov 27	vs MIL	W137–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

TOR 6–11 DETDET leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · TOR 4-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	TOR 116 @ DET 127	DET -3.5	DET W
Mar 15, 2025-26	DET 108 @ TOR 119	TOR +3.5	TOR W
Feb 11, 2025-26	DET 113 @ TOR 95	TOR -1.5	DET W
Apr 4, 2024-25	DET 117 @ TOR 105	TOR +10.5	DET W
Jan 11, 2024-25	TOR 114 @ DET 123	DET -5.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Raptors 1, Pistons 1, even 3

RaptorsBetterPistons

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

Even

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

DETSmall

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORSmall

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

RaptorsBetterPistons

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORSmall

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

DET6.7 #4

TOR		DET
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.09 #18
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
32.0 #24	3-point %	36.3 #9
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.0 #12
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Pistons

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Pistons