Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Bulls
WSH	This season	CHI
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 121–119 · win probability WSH 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 4, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

WSHBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 37.6% and 47.9% of their shots

CHIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, CHI 69.8%

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHIBig

CHI offense vs WSH defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, CHI 38.3. Allowed: WSH 21.8, CHI 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

WSH offense vs CHI defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, CHI 14.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs ORL	L131–136WO
Nov 24	vs BOS	L100–111WU
Nov 28	vs ORL	L131–136WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs DEN	L120–136LO
Nov 23	vs CLE	L110–115WU
Nov 25	@ CHA	L99–131LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

WSH 5–13 CHICHI leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · WSH 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	WSH 124 @ CHI 120	CHI -1.5	WSH W
Apr 9, 2025-26	CHI 119 @ WSH 108	WSH +6.5	CHI W
Apr 7, 2025-26	CHI 129 @ WSH 98	WSH +5.5	CHI W
Nov 22, 2025-26	WSH 120 @ CHI 121	CHI -12.5	WSH W
Apr 11, 2024-25	WSH 89 @ CHI 119	CHI -13.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Wizards 2, Bulls 2, even 1

WizardsBetterBulls

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

CHISmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

WSHSmall

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

WizardsBetterBulls

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

WSHSmall

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

CHIBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

CHI5.0 #12

WSH		CHI
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.04 #26
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
29.3 #29	3-point %	28.1 #30
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
24.5 #24	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
7.2 #24	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Bulls

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Bulls

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Bulls