Paycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects OKC 118–111 · win probability OKC 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges
NO 3, OKC 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points
OKCBigNO offense vs OKC defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
OKCSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: NO 16.3%, OKC 15.8%
NOSmallThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 32.8% and 35.8% of their shots
OKCSmallOKC offense vs NO defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
NOSmallRecent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0
NOSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, OKC 21.8. Allowed: NO 30.6, OKC 23.4
OKCSmallHome court
OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, OKC 71.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelOKC -7.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.4
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 110.5 · OKC 118
Win probability
OKC 70%
1st half
Spread
OKC -4.1
Total
114.4
Projected score
NO 55.2 · OKC 59.3
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| OKClast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22
NO 5–17 OKCOKC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 13 meetings · NO 6-16 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025-26 | NO 95 @ OKC 104 | OKC -14.5 | NO W |
| Nov 17, 2025-26 | OKC 126 @ NO 109 | NO +18.5 | NO W |
| Nov 2, 2025-26 | NO 106 @ OKC 137 | OKC -13.5 | OKC W |
| Apr 13, 2024-25 | OKC 115 @ NO 100 | NO +13.5 | OKC W |
| Feb 10, 2024-25 | NO 101 @ OKC 137 | OKC -17.5 | OKC W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Thunder
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@
SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@
DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
31
@
HOU
HOUL 98-119
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−2.5
over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Thunder has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 2, Thunder 3, even 0
PelicansBetterThunder
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
→OKCBig
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 88
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
→OKCBig
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 99
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
←NOBig
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 8
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
←NOBig
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 40
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
→OKCBig
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 88
PelicansBetterThunder
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
→OKCBig
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→OKCSmall
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
→OKCBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
←NOBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→OKCBig
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
ThunderGuards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7OKC106.5 #29Points per possession
NO1.10 #15OKC1.05 #23Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2OKC101.1 #27Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9OKC49.5 #283-point %
NO31.2 #25OKC30.9 #263-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30OKC35.8 #29Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4OKC21.8 #28Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26OKC14.5 #7Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25OKC28.5 #10Assists per game
NO25.5 #21OKC21.7 #29Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24OKC107.0 #5Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16OKC1.06 #7Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21OKC51.0 #6Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5OKC35.3 #17Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10OKC15.8 #13Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6OKC71.4 #18Steals per game
NO13.7 #1OKC8.3 #20Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16OKC6.3 #7| NO | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 106.5 #29 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.05 #23 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 101.1 #27 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #28 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 30.9 #26 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.8 #29 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 21.8 #28 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 14.5 #7 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.5 #10 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 21.7 #29 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 107.0 #5 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #7 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.0 #6 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.3 #17 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 15.8 #13 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 71.4 #18 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 8.3 #20 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #7 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Thunder
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets98–119
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
A week or more of rest.