New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 9:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Clippers
NO	This season	LAC
2-4	Record	1-5
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 117–114 · win probability LAC 60%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 4, LAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, LAC 70.9%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, NO 0-2 away

NOSmall

LAC offense vs NO defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

NO offense vs LAC defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: NO 16.3%, LAC 17.0%

Even

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 32.8% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, LAC 28.0. Allowed: NO 30.6, LAC 24.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NO away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ POR	L106–118LU
Nov 30	@ SAC	W132–120WO
Dec 2	vs LAL	L101–110LU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ GS	L112–124LO
Dec 1	@ PHX	W117–93WO
Dec 2	vs MIN	L101–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

NO 13–6 LACNO leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · NO has won the last 2 meetings · NO 16-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	LAC 99 @ NO 105	NO -4.5	NO W
Mar 18, 2025-26	LAC 109 @ NO 124	NO +2.5	NO W
Mar 1, 2025-26	NO 117 @ LAC 137	LAC -8.5	LAC W
Oct 31, 2025-26	NO 124 @ LAC 126	LAC -10.5	NO W
Apr 2, 2024-25	NO 98 @ LAC 114	LAC -18.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 3, Clippers 0, even 2

PelicansBetterClippers

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

NOSmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

Even

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

NOBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

PelicansBetterClippers

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Even

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

Even

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

NOBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

LAC4.2 #22

NO		LAC
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.04 #27
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
31.2 #25	3-point %	38.6 #5
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
25.5 #21	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
13.7 #1	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Clippers

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Clippers

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Clippers