Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Jazz
DEN	This season	UTAH
3-2	Record	1-5
2-3	ATS	1-5
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 121–115 · win probability DEN 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: DEN 21.5, UTAH 33.8

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 40.9% and 41.7% of their shots

DENBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, UTAH 13.3%

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, UTAH 77.1%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

UTAH offense vs DEN defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: DEN away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ TOR	W121–115LU
Nov 30	@ DET	L121–124WO
Dec 2	@ PHI	W124–96WU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs PHX	L109–134LO
Dec 1	@ GS	W119–116WO
Dec 3	@ POR	L90–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

DEN 13–7 UTAHDEN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 10 meetings · DEN 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ UTAH 117	UTAH +17.5	UTAH W
Mar 27, 2025-26	UTAH 129 @ DEN 135	DEN -19.5	UTAH W
Mar 2, 2025-26	DEN 128 @ UTAH 125	UTAH +11.5	UTAH W
Dec 22, 2025-26	UTAH 112 @ DEN 135	DEN -12.5	DEN W
Mar 28, 2024-25	UTAH 93 @ DEN 129	DEN -19.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 4, Jazz 0, even 1

NuggetsBetterJazz

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENSmall

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

Even

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

NuggetsBetterJazz

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

UTAH6.5 #5

DEN		UTAH
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.05 #25
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
37.4 #7	3-point %	32.6 #23
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
26.8 #14	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
10.2 #5	Steals per game	6.2 #29
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Jazz

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Jazz

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Jazz