Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 6:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Raptors
DEN	This season	TOR
3-2	Record	3-3
2-3	ATS	3-3
3-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 117–113 · win probability TOR 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

DEN 2, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, TOR 27.7. Allowed: DEN 21.5, TOR 41.5

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, TOR 20.8%

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 40.9% and 38.1% of their shots

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, TOR 73.4%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

TORSmall

TOR offense vs DEN defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DEN offense vs TOR defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ DET	L121–124WO
Dec 2	@ PHI	W124–96WU
Dec 12	@ UTAH	W130–117LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ HOU	L99–113LU
Dec 3	@ SA	L107–110WU
Dec 13	@ OKC	L107–116LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 8–2 TORDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 6 meetings · DEN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 20, 2025-26	TOR 115 @ DEN 121	DEN -6.5	TOR W
Dec 31, 2025-26	DEN 106 @ TOR 103	TOR -7.5	DEN W
Nov 4, 2024-25	TOR 119 @ DEN 121	DEN -11.5	TOR W
Oct 28, 2024-25	DEN 127 @ TOR 125	TOR +8.5	TOR W
Mar 11, 2023-24	TOR 119 @ DEN 125	DEN -16.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Raptors 0, even 4

NuggetsBetterRaptors

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

Even

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENSmall

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

NuggetsBetterRaptors

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

TORSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

TOR4.3 #19

DEN		TOR
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.11 #13
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
37.4 #7	3-point %	32.0 #24
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
26.8 #14	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
10.2 #5	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Raptors

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Raptors