Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Rockets
TOR	This season	HOU
3-3	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 115–109 · win probability HOU 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

TOR 1, HOU 6 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, HOU 31.9. Allowed: TOR 41.5, HOU 24.7

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, HOU 15.7%

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUBig

TOR offense vs HOU defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

HOU offense vs TOR defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, HOU 73.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: TOR away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ SA	L107–110WU
Dec 13	@ OKC	L107–116LO
Dec 14	@ CHA	W97–96LU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ CHI	L124–132LO
Dec 14	vs NY	W111–94WU
Dec 16	vs MIL	W132–100WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 HOUSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings · TOR 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	TOR 99 @ HOU 113	HOU -4.5	HOU W
Oct 29, 2025-26	HOU 139 @ TOR 121	TOR +5.5	HOU W
Feb 9, 2024-25	TOR 87 @ HOU 94	HOU -8.5	TOR W
Dec 22, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ TOR 110	TOR +8.5	TOR W
Feb 9, 2023-24	HOU 104 @ TOR 107	TOR -2.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 0, Rockets 3, even 2

RaptorsBetterRockets

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

HOUSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

HOUSmall

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

HOUSmall

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

RaptorsBetterRockets

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

HOUSmall

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

HOU5.9 #8

TOR		HOU
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.20 #1
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
32.0 #24	3-point %	39.0 #3
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
29.2 #2	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Rockets