New York Knicks at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 14, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Rockets
NY	This season	HOU
2-4	Record	6-1
1-5	ATS	6-1
1-5	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 112–107 · win probability HOU 64%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

NY 1, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

NY offense vs HOU defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUBig

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 43.2% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, HOU 31.9. Allowed: NY 25.9, HOU 24.7

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: NY 13.2%, HOU 15.7%

NYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, HOU 73.2%

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

HOU offense vs NY defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: NY away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	@ NO	W121–116LO
Dec 18	@ WSH	W145–113WO
Dec 21	@ CLE	W130–93WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	vs MIL	W132–100WO
Dec 18	@ MEM	W132–101WO
Dec 20	@ TOR	W113–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 7–3 HOUNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	NY 94 @ HOU 111	HOU +1.5	HOU W
Feb 21, 2025-26	HOU 106 @ NY 108	NY -3.5	HOU W
Feb 3, 2024-25	HOU 118 @ NY 124	NY -7.5	HOU W
Nov 4, 2024-25	NY 97 @ HOU 109	HOU +2.5	HOU W
Feb 12, 2023-24	NY 103 @ HOU 105	HOU -1.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 1, Rockets 0, even 4

KnicksBetterRockets

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

Even

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

Even

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

KnicksBetterRockets

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

Even

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

HOU5.9 #8

NY		HOU
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.20 #1
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
35.2 #13	3-point %	39.0 #3
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
26.2 #18	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
7.3 #23	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Rockets

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Rockets