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NBA · Wed, Dec 16

Knicks @ Pelicans

Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans
#8NYKnicks
@
#22NOPelicans
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NYThis seasonNO
2-4Record2-4
1-5ATS4-2
1-5O/U4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 116–111 · win probability NY 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 226.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NY 2, NO 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points
NYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, NO 76.4%
NYBig
NO offense vs NY defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
NOBig
Recent form
Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8
NOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2
NOSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NY 24.5, NO 35.3. Allowed: NY 25.9, NO 30.6
NOSmall
Home court
NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, NY 1-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, NO 17.4%. Forced: NY 13.2%, NO 16.3%
Even
NY offense vs NO defense
Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 43.2% and 32.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNY -5.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model226.7
Model edge—
Projected score
NY 115.9 · NO 110.8
Win probability
NY 64%
1st half
Spread
NY -3.0
Total
113.6
Projected score
NY 58.3 · NO 55.3
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Pelicans 0, even 2
KnicksBetterPelicans
G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86
NYBig
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91
Even
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75
NYSmall
F T. Murphy14.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 60
F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73
Even
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80
NYSmall
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
KnicksBetterPelicans
NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8
Even
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2
NYSmall
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players
NYBig
Backcourt-3.3 · 1 player
Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players
NOSmall
Frontcourt+19.9 · 4 players
Bench+5.0 · 5 players
NYBig
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNY betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Knicks
Guards
J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min
Forwards
O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew
Centers
K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min
Out
J. AlvaradoOut
Pelicans
Guards
J. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minT. Murphy32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
D. MurrayDay-To-DayJ. PooleOutY. MissiOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
NYNO
Scoring
107.0Points per game119.7
1.05Points per possession1.10
101.0Pace (possessions)108.0
Shooting
49.5Effective FG%55.1
35.23-point %31.2
43.23-point attempt rate32.8
24.5Free throw rate35.3
Possessions
15.2Turnover rate17.4
30.3Offensive rebound rate24.3
26.2Assists per game25.5
Defense
107.7Points allowed117.8
1.07Points allowed per possession1.09
53.1Opponent effective FG%54.2
35.5Opponent 3-point %30.5
13.2Turnovers forced16.3
78.7Defensive rebound rate76.4
7.3Steals per game13.7
4.0Blocks per game4.8
NYNO
Scoring
107.0 #27Points per game119.7 #7
1.05 #24Points per possession1.10 #15
101.0 #28Pace (possessions)108.0 #2
Shooting
49.5 #27Effective FG%55.1 #9
35.2 #133-point %31.2 #25
43.2 #143-point attempt rate32.8 #30
24.5 #23Free throw rate35.3 #4
Possessions
15.2 #14Turnover rate17.4 #26
30.3 #6Offensive rebound rate24.3 #25
26.2 #18Assists per game25.5 #21
Defense
107.7 #6Points allowed117.8 #24
1.07 #12Points allowed per possession1.09 #16
53.1 #14Opponent effective FG%54.2 #21
35.5 #18Opponent 3-point %30.5 #5
13.2 #29Turnovers forced16.3 #10
78.7 #1Defensive rebound rate76.4 #6
7.3 #23Steals per game13.7 #1
4.0 #28Blocks per game4.8 #16
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ 76ers93–98
  • W@ Bulls133–127
  • Wvs Pistons111–97
  • Lvs Magic102–111
  • L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.