Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 18, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Pelicans
SAC	This season	NO
0-6	Record	2-4
1-5	ATS	4-2
5-1	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 125–114 · win probability NO 78%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

SAC 0, NO 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

NO offense vs SAC defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

NOBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 38.0% and 32.8% of their shots

NOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, NO 35.3. Allowed: SAC 31.2, NO 30.6

NOBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, NO 76.4%

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

SAC offense vs NO defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, NO 17.4%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, NO 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ MIA	L117–130LO
Dec 21	@ ORL	L117–121WO
Dec 23	vs DAL	W130–121WO

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs SA	W104–95WU
Dec 21	vs MEM	W114–106WU
Dec 23	vs OKC	L95–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

SAC 8–13 NONO leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · SAC 6-15 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 29, 2026-27	SAC 120 @ NO 132	NO -6.5	NO W
Apr 3, 2025-26	NO 113 @ SAC 117	SAC +6.5	SAC W
Mar 5, 2025-26	NO 133 @ SAC 123	SAC +6.5	NO W
Feb 9, 2025-26	SAC 94 @ NO 120	NO -9.5	NO W
Feb 13, 2024-25	SAC 133 @ NO 140	NO +7.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Pelicans 4, even 1

KingsBetterPelicans

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

NOBig

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

Even

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

NOBig

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

NOBig

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

NOBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

KingsBetterPelicans

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Even

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

NOBig

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

NOBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

SACSmall

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

NO4.8 #16

SAC		NO
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.10 #15
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
30.4 #27	3-point %	31.2 #25
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
24.5 #23	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
8.0 #21	Steals per game	13.7 #1
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Pelicans

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Pelicans