Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 18, 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Spurs
CHI	This season	SA
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 128–108 · win probability SA 92%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

CHI 0, SA 7 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

SA offense vs CHI defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

SABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, SA 13.1%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, SA 15.7%

SABig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 47.9% and 39.0% of their shots

SASmall

CHI offense vs SA defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, SA 75.8%

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, SA 24.5. Allowed: CHI 33.5, SA 21.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CHI away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	@ DAL	L128–149LO
Dec 21	@ MIA	L91–134LU
Dec 23	@ MIA	L91–134LU

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ NO	L95–104LU
Dec 21	vs MIL	W127–95WU
Dec 23	@ BKN	W126–110WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

CHI 7–4 SACHI leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · CHI 8-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	CHI 114 @ SA 129	SA -17.5	CHI W
Nov 10, 2025-26	SA 121 @ CHI 117	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Jan 6, 2024-25	SA 110 @ CHI 114	CHI +2.5	CHI W
Dec 5, 2024-25	CHI 139 @ SA 124	SA -1.5	CHI W
Jan 13, 2023-24	CHI 122 @ SA 116	SA +6.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Spurs 5, even 0

BullsBetterSpurs

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

SASmall

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

SASmall

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

SABig

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

SABig

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

SABig

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

BullsBetterSpurs

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

SASmall

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

SABig

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

SABig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

SA7.0 #1

CHI		SA
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.12 #10
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
28.1 #30	3-point %	34.9 #17
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
24.3 #25	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.2 #10
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Spurs

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Spurs