Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 19, 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · at Mavericks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Mavericks
CHI	This season	DAL
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 126–113 · win probability DAL 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

CHI 2, DAL 4 · 2026-27 so far

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3

DALBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 47.9% and 42.1% of their shots

DALBig

DAL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, DAL 21.4. Allowed: CHI 33.5, DAL 27.2

DALSmall

Home court

DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

CHISmall

CHI offense vs DAL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, DAL 14.5%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, DAL 69.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	@ MIA	L91–134LU
Dec 23	@ MIA	L91–134LU
Dec 26	vs DET	L110–126LO

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 22	@ GS	L131–137LO
Dec 23	@ SAC	L121–130LO
Dec 26	vs PHX	L107–112WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 4–6 DALDAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	CHI 128 @ DAL 149	DAL -5.5	DAL W
Jan 10, 2025-26	DAL 107 @ CHI 125	CHI -4.5	CHI W
Mar 29, 2024-25	DAL 120 @ CHI 119	CHI -2.5	DAL W
Nov 6, 2024-25	CHI 99 @ DAL 119	DAL -10.5	DAL W
Mar 11, 2023-24	DAL 127 @ CHI 92	CHI +3.5	DAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Mavericks 4, even 0

BullsBetterMavericks

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHIBig

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

DALBig

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

DALBig

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

DALBig

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

DALSmall

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

BullsBetterMavericks

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

DALBig

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

DALBig

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

DALBig

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

DAL114.3 #14

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

DAL1.12 #11

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

DAL102.8 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

DAL56.9 #2

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

DAL35.1 #14

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

DAL42.1 #18

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

DAL21.4 #29

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

DAL16.8 #23

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

DAL27.8 #13

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

DAL27.0 #12

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

DAL111.8 #14

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

DAL1.08 #13

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

DAL51.3 #9

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

DAL29.7 #2

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

DAL14.5 #24

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

DAL69.4 #25

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

DAL8.8 #16

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

DAL6.8 #2

CHI		DAL
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	114.3 #14
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.12 #11
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	102.8 #18
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	56.9 #2
28.1 #30	3-point %	35.1 #14
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #18
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	21.4 #29
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	16.8 #23
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #13
24.3 #25	Assists per game	27.0 #12
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	111.8 #14
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #13
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #9
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #2
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	14.5 #24
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #25
8.7 #17	Steals per game	8.8 #16
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	6.8 #2

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Mavericks

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Mavericks

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Mavericks