Suns @ Mavericks: Odds, Model Line & ATS Trends (Sat, Dec 26, NBA)

Sat, Dec 26, 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Mavericks
PHX	This season	DAL
1-4	Record	4-3
0-5	ATS	4-3
4-1	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 117–113 · win probability DAL 60%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

PHX 1, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.2 and allows 57.1; DAL 55.5 and allows 52.9

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.1%, DAL 16.7%. Forced: PHX 16.2%, DAL 15.3%

DALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 25.2, DAL 24.5. Allowed: PHX 33.6, DAL 26.1

DALBig

Recent form

Last 5: PHX 0-5 ATS, margin -10.6; DAL 3-2 ATS, margin +0.4

DALSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.3% and allows 41.1%; DAL hits 33.3% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 43.2% and 42.1% of their shots

DALSmall

Home court

DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-2 at home, PHX 0-3 away

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, DAL the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DALSmall

DAL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 27.1%, DAL 27.2%. Defensive: PHX 66.0%, DAL 69.6%

Even

PHX offense vs DAL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.6 a game (20th fastest), DAL 102.3 (18th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	—
DAL LWWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOOO	4-1	80%	1-4
DAL UUUOU	2-5	29%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 5	1-4 20%	0-5 0%	4-1 80%
DALlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 28	vs GS	L113–116LO
Dec 30	vs PHI	L103–109LU
Dec 31	vs NY	W106–99WU

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs MIA	W113–109WU
Jan 1	@ HOU	W116–111WO
Jan 2	@ ATL	L120–135LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

PHX 15–9 DALPHX leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 4 meetings · PHX 11-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 8, 2025-26	DAL 107 @ PHX 112	PHX -12.5	DAL W
Feb 10, 2025-26	DAL 111 @ PHX 120	PHX -8.5	PHX W
Nov 12, 2025-26	PHX 123 @ DAL 114	DAL +1.5	PHX W
Mar 9, 2024-25	PHX 125 @ DAL 116	DAL +6.5	PHX W
Dec 27, 2024-25	DAL 98 @ PHX 89	PHX -0.5	DAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −8.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247
Nov 2	@GS	L 113-116	+2.5	L −0.5	227.5	O 229

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

L 113-116

−0.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

L 113-116

+1.5

over 4under 1avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mavericks

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +5.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −7.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227
Nov 2	vsSAC	L 100-115	-7.5	L −22.5	232.5	U 215

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

SAC

L 100-115

−22.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

SAC

L 100-115

−17.5

over 2under 5avg −7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Mavericks 3, even 1

SunsBetterMavericks

G D. Booker23 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.2 ast Score 93

PHXSmall

F P. Washington13.6 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 74

G J. Green11 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.6 ast Score 9

DALSmall

F C. Flagg25.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 38

F M. Bridges17.2 pts · 7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 18

DALBig

F Z. Risacher8.1 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 63

F D. Brooks16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 61

Even

F N. Marshall11.5 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast Score 47

C K. Maluach7.4 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 20

DALSmall

F D. Gafford10.1 pts · 7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 40

SunsBetterMavericks

PHX offense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

DAL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.2

Even

DAL offense17th of 30 · -0.7

Backcourt+9.9 · 2 players

No call

BackcourtNo numbers yet

Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players

DALBig

Frontcourt+11.9 · 5 players

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

DALSmall

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green29 minC. Gillespie26 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard16 minJ. Bouyea13 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks30 minO. Ighodaro20 minR. Dunn12 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach20 minD. Reath8 min

Out

J. GoodwinDay-To-Day

Mavericks

Guards

M. Sasser19 minW. Clayton14 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg34 minZ. Risacher28 minN. Marshall27 minD. Gafford24 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

M. ChristieDay-To-DayS. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

PHX

DAL

Scoring

112.2Points per game112.3

1.11Points per possession1.10

101.6Pace (possessions)102.3

Shooting

54.2Effective FG%55.5

35.33-point %33.3

43.23-point attempt rate42.1

25.2Free throw rate24.5

Possessions

15.1Turnover rate16.7

27.1Offensive rebound rate27.2

27.6Assists per game25.9

Defense

122.8Points allowed112.3

1.20Points allowed per possession1.09

57.1Opponent effective FG%52.9

41.1Opponent 3-point %32.2

16.2Turnovers forced15.3

66.0Defensive rebound rate69.6

9.4Steals per game9.1

5.2Blocks per game6.0

PHX		DAL
Scoring
112.2 #17	Points per game	112.3 #16
1.11 #15	Points per possession	1.10 #16
101.6 #20	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #18
Shooting
54.2 #13	Effective FG%	55.5 #5
35.3 #12	3-point %	33.3 #20
43.2 #16	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
25.2 #25	Free throw rate	24.5 #26
Possessions
15.1 #11	Turnover rate	16.7 #25
27.1 #15	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #14
27.6 #6	Assists per game	25.9 #17
Defense
122.8 #26	Points allowed	112.3 #14
1.20 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
57.1 #28	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #13
41.1 #29	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #8
16.2 #9	Turnovers forced	15.3 #16
66.0 #30	Defensive rebound rate	69.6 #25
9.4 #9	Steals per game	9.1 #11
5.2 #12	Blocks per game	6.0 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-4 overall · 1-4 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors113–116
Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-3 overall · 2-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Kings100–115
Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Mavericks

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Mavericks

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Mavericks