Miami Heat at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Clippers
MIA	This season	LAC
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 117–115 · win probability LAC 54%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 3, LAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs LAC defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 41.7% and 42.3% of their shots

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, LAC 17.0%

MIASmall

Rest

MIA 5 days since its last game, LAC 3

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

LAC offense vs MIA defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, LAC 70.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, LAC 28.0. Allowed: MIA 23.2, LAC 24.7

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIA away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ GS	L112–135LO
Nov 8	@ SAC	W130–117WO
Nov 10	@ UTAH	L111–115LU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs NO	L99–105LU
Nov 10	@ PHX	W117–93WO
Nov 13	vs OKC	L101–108WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIA 5–5 LACSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings · MIA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 1, 2025-26	LAC 123 @ MIA 140	MIA -6.5	MIA W
Nov 3, 2025-26	MIA 120 @ LAC 119	LAC -7.5	MIA W
Mar 12, 2024-25	LAC 119 @ MIA 104	MIA -1.5	LAC W
Jan 13, 2024-25	MIA 98 @ LAC 109	LAC -7.5	LAC W
Feb 4, 2023-24	LAC 103 @ MIA 95	MIA +4.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 3, Clippers 1, even 1

HeatBetterClippers

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIASmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

Even

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

LACSmall

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

HeatBetterClippers

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

MIA

LAC

Scoring

118.3Points per game106.5

1.11Points per possession1.04

106.2Pace (possessions)101.7

Shooting

54.6Effective FG%52.9

34.13-point %38.6

41.73-point attempt rate42.3

27.3Free throw rate28.0

Possessions

14.1Turnover rate20.4

24.5Offensive rebound rate26.5

28.8Assists per game24.3

Defense

121.5Points allowed113.8

1.15Points allowed per possession1.13

56.8Opponent effective FG%56.9

40.6Opponent 3-point %38.2

15.4Turnovers forced17.0

72.3Defensive rebound rate70.9

8.3Steals per game11.3

5.0Blocks per game4.2

MIA		LAC
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.04 #27
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
34.1 #19	3-point %	38.6 #5
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
28.8 #3	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
8.3 #19	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

5 days since their last game.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

3 days since their last game.

Heat @ Clippers

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Clippers

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Clippers