Miami Heat at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#18MIAHeat

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Jazz
MIA	This season	UTAH
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 122–117 · win probability MIA 63%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MIA 3, UTAH 3 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, UTAH 13.3%

UTAHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, UTAH 77.1%

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: MIA 23.2, UTAH 33.8

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense vs MIA defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

Even

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 41.7% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: MIA away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs CLE	L128–149LO
Nov 14	vs DET	L111–128LO
Nov 16	vs HOU	L122–123WO

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs ORL	L117–120WO
Nov 13	@ HOU	L106–140LO
Nov 15	vs SA	L111–117WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIA 7–3 UTAHMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	UTAH 115 @ MIA 111	MIA -5.5	UTAH W
Jan 24, 2025-26	MIA 147 @ UTAH 116	UTAH +6.5	MIA W
Jan 9, 2024-25	MIA 97 @ UTAH 92	UTAH +5.5	UTAH W
Jan 4, 2024-25	UTAH 136 @ MIA 100	MIA -8.5	UTAH W
Mar 2, 2023-24	UTAH 120 @ MIA 126	MIA -9.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 3, Jazz 1, even 1

HeatBetterJazz

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIABig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

Even

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

UTAHSmall

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIASmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

HeatBetterJazz

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

UTAHSmall

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

UTAH6.5 #5

MIA		UTAH
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.05 #25
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
34.1 #19	3-point %	32.6 #23
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
28.8 #3	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
8.3 #19	Steals per game	6.2 #29
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Jazz

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Jazz

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Jazz