Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Heat
CLE	This season	MIA
4-2	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 121–118 · win probability CLE 56%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 238.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 4, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs MIA defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

MIA offense vs CLE defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 43.6% and 41.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, MIA 72.3%

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, CLE 1-2 away

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, MIA 15.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, MIA 27.3. Allowed: CLE 23.2, MIA 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CLE away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs DAL	L120–130LO
Nov 16	vs CHI	W115–110LU
Nov 18	vs MEM	W142–126WO

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs DET	L111–128LO
Nov 16	vs HOU	L122–123WO
Nov 18	vs MIL	W112–105WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

CLE 13–9 MIACLE leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · CLE 11-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	MIA 128 @ CLE 149	CLE -5.5	CLE W
Mar 25, 2025-26	MIA 120 @ CLE 103	CLE -2.5	MIA W
Nov 12, 2025-26	CLE 130 @ MIA 116	MIA -4.5	CLE W
Nov 10, 2025-26	CLE 138 @ MIA 140	MIA +7.5	MIA W
Apr 28, 2024-25	CLE 138 @ MIA 83	MIA +8.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Heat 1, even 2

CavaliersBetterHeat

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

MIASmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLESmall

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

CavaliersBetterHeat

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

MIA5.0 #13

CLE		MIA
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.11 #14
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
37.0 #8	3-point %	34.1 #19
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
28.7 #4	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
7.8 #22	Steals per game	8.3 #19
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Heat

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Heat

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Heat