Rocket Arena · at Cavaliers
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects CLE 119–114 · win probability CLE 65%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges
DAL 3, CLE 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CLEBigCLE offense vs DAL defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
CLEBigFree throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, CLE 28.9. Allowed: DAL 27.2, CLE 23.2
CLESmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, CLE 14.1%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6
CLESmallHome court
CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, DAL 2-1 away
DALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5
DALSmallDAL offense vs CLE defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, CLE 73.9%
Even
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 43.6% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelCLE -5.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.3
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 114 · CLE 119.4
Win probability
CLE 65%
1st half
Spread
CLE -2.9
Total
116.7
Projected score
DAL 56.9 · CLE 59.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
DAL 2–8 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DAL 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025-26 | DAL 130 @ CLE 120 | CLE -14.5 | DAL W |
| Mar 13, 2025-26 | CLE 138 @ DAL 105 | DAL +13.5 | CLE W |
| Feb 2, 2024-25 | DAL 101 @ CLE 144 | CLE -15.5 | CLE W |
| Jan 3, 2024-25 | CLE 134 @ DAL 122 | DAL +9.5 | CLE W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | DAL 119 @ CLE 121 | CLE -3.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@
MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cavaliers has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 1, Cavaliers 3, even 1
MavericksBetterCavaliers
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→CLEBig
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
=Even
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→CLEBig
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
←DALBig
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→CLEBig
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
MavericksBetterCavaliers
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
=Even
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→CLEBig
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→CLEBig
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
→CLESmall
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
→CLESmall
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14CLE121.0 #2Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11CLE1.14 #7Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18CLE106.2 #3Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2CLE55.3 #73-point %
DAL35.1 #14CLE37.0 #83-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18CLE43.6 #12Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29CLE28.9 #13Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23CLE14.2 #6Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13CLE26.7 #20Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12CLE28.7 #4Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14CLE116.0 #20Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13CLE1.09 #14Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9CLE52.5 #12Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2CLE33.7 #11Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24CLE14.1 #25Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25CLE73.9 #11Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16CLE7.8 #22Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2CLE6.3 #6| DAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 121.0 #2 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.14 #7 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #3 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #7 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 37.0 #8 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.6 #12 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #13 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 14.2 #6 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.7 #20 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 28.7 #4 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 116.0 #20 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #14 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.5 #12 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.7 #11 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 14.1 #25 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.9 #11 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 7.8 #22 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #6 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
A week or more of rest.