Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Pelicans
DEN	This season	NO
3-2	Record	2-4
2-3	ATS	4-2
3-2	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 120–118 · win probability DEN 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DEN 3, NO 3 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs NO defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

NO offense vs DEN defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, NO 35.3. Allowed: DEN 21.5, NO 30.6

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 40.9% and 32.8% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, NO 76.4%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, NO 17.4%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, NO 16.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs PHX	W127–120WO
Nov 18	vs BOS	W103–84WU
Nov 20	vs HOU	W129–93WU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs GS	W113–109WU
Nov 18	vs DET	L108–129LO
Nov 20	@ OKC	L95–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

DEN 15–5 NODEN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 8 meetings · DEN 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	DEN 104 @ NO 91	NO +4.5	DEN W
Oct 24, 2026-27	NO 135 @ DEN 141	DEN -11.5	NO W
Jan 13, 2025-26	DEN 122 @ NO 116	NO +2.5	DEN W
Nov 19, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ NO 118	NO +10.5	NO W
Oct 29, 2025-26	NO 88 @ DEN 122	DEN -11.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 3, Pelicans 0, even 2

NuggetsBetterPelicans

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

Even

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENSmall

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NuggetsBetterPelicans

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

NOSmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

NO4.8 #16

DEN		NO
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.10 #15
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
37.4 #7	3-point %	31.2 #25
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
26.8 #14	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
10.2 #5	Steals per game	13.7 #1
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Pelicans

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Pelicans

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Pelicans