Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineDEN -3.5no move

Total227.5no move

Season records: Rockets and Nuggets
HOU	This season	DEN
6-1	Record	3-2
6-1	ATS	2-3
5-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 117–113 · win probability HOU 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

DEN -3.5

no move since the open

Total

227.5

model 229.4 · Over by 2

Model edge

HOU by 7

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, DEN 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

HOU offense vs DEN defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, DEN 70.5%

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 38.1% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

HOUSmall

DEN offense vs HOU defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: HOU 24.7, DEN 21.5

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 225 to 229.5	827	68%	50%	52%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	1-0
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs LAC	L102–105LU
Nov 25	vs PHX	W119–105WO
Nov 28	vs PHI	W113–102WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ CHI	W136–120WO
Nov 24	vs DAL	W142–135LO
Nov 27	@ UTAH	W130–117LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

HOU 6–12 DENDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · HOU 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 11, 2025-26	HOU 93 @ DEN 129	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Dec 20, 2025-26	HOU 115 @ DEN 101	DEN +1.5	HOU W
Dec 15, 2025-26	HOU 125 @ DEN 128	DEN +1.5	DEN W
Nov 21, 2025-26	DEN 112 @ HOU 109	HOU -3.5	DEN W
Apr 13, 2024-25	DEN 126 @ HOU 111	HOU +5.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 2, Nuggets 1, even 2

RocketsBetterNuggets

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

RocketsBetterNuggets

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

DEN4.4 #18

HOU		DEN
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
39.0 #3	3-point %	37.4 #7
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
28.1 #5	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.7 #6	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Nuggets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Nuggets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Nuggets