LA Clippers at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Rockets
LAC	This season	HOU
1-5	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 117–106 · win probability HOU 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

LAC 0, HOU 9 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

LAC offense vs HOU defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUBig

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 42.3% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, HOU 73.2%

HOUSmall

HOU offense vs LAC defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, HOU 15.7%

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, LAC 0-4 away

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, HOU 31.9. Allowed: LAC 24.7, HOU 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: LAC away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ MEM	W123–120LO
Nov 27	vs NO	L99–105LU
Nov 29	@ GS	L112–124LO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs PHX	W119–105WO
Nov 28	vs PHI	W113–102WU
Nov 30	vs LAL	L78–98LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

LAC 12–6 HOULAC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · LAC 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 11, 2025-26	LAC 105 @ HOU 102	HOU -8.5	LAC W
Feb 10, 2025-26	LAC 95 @ HOU 102	HOU -9.5	LAC W
Dec 23, 2025-26	HOU 108 @ LAC 128	LAC +7.5	LAC W
Dec 11, 2025-26	LAC 113 @ HOU 115	HOU -8.5	LAC W
Apr 9, 2024-25	HOU 117 @ LAC 134	LAC -10.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 0, Rockets 4, even 1

ClippersBetterRockets

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

HOUSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

HOUBig

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

HOUBig

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

Even

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

HOUBig

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

ClippersBetterRockets

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

HOUSmall

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

HOU5.9 #8

LAC		HOU
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.20 #1
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
38.6 #5	3-point %	39.0 #3
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
24.3 #26	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
11.3 #3	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Rockets