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NBA · Wed, Nov 25

Clippers @ Grizzlies

FedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game
#20LACClippers
@
#12MEMGrizzlies
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LACThis seasonMEM
1-5Record6-0
3-3ATS6-0
3-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 115–113 · win probability MEM 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

LAC 1, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
MEMBig
LAC offense vs MEM defense
Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBig
Three-pointers
LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 42.3% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, MEM 75.0%
LACBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, MEM 25.3. Allowed: LAC 24.7, MEM 31.4
MEMBig
Recent form
Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmall
Home court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, LAC 0-4 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, MEM 15.7%
Even
MEM offense vs LAC defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMEM -2.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.3
Model edge—
Projected score
LAC 112.7 · MEM 114.6
Win probability
MEM 56%
1st half
Spread
MEM -1.0
Total
113.8
Projected score
LAC 56.4 · MEM 57.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 0, Grizzlies 3, even 2
ClippersBetterGrizzlies
G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27
MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25
MEMBig
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87
G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31
Even
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33
F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83
Even
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85
F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8
MEMBig
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92
ClippersBetterGrizzlies
LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5
MEMBig
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7
Even
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
MEMBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench+3.5 · 5 players
LACBig
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAC betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Clippers
Guards
D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min
Forwards
R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min
Centers
B. Lopez22 min
Out
D. JonesDay-To-Day
Grizzlies
Guards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
LACMEM
Scoring
106.5Points per game121.2
1.04Points per possession1.16
101.7Pace (possessions)103.6
Shooting
52.9Effective FG%55.9
38.63-point %41.7
42.33-point attempt rate42.1
28.0Free throw rate25.3
Possessions
20.4Turnover rate15.4
26.5Offensive rebound rate30.6
24.3Assists per game27.0
Defense
113.8Points allowed106.0
1.13Points allowed per possession1.03
56.9Opponent effective FG%49.2
38.2Opponent 3-point %30.0
17.0Turnovers forced15.7
70.9Defensive rebound rate75.0
11.3Steals per game6.3
4.2Blocks per game5.2
LACMEM
Scoring
106.5 #28Points per game121.2 #1
1.04 #27Points per possession1.16 #4
101.7 #23Pace (possessions)103.6 #13
Shooting
52.9 #18Effective FG%55.9 #5
38.6 #53-point %41.7 #1
42.3 #173-point attempt rate42.1 #19
28.0 #17Free throw rate25.3 #22
Possessions
20.4 #30Turnover rate15.4 #16
26.5 #21Offensive rebound rate30.6 #5
24.3 #26Assists per game27.0 #13
Defense
113.8 #15Points allowed106.0 #3
1.13 #22Points allowed per possession1.03 #2
56.9 #28Opponent effective FG%49.2 #3
38.2 #26Opponent 3-point %30.0 #3
17.0 #8Turnovers forced15.7 #15
70.9 #20Defensive rebound rate75.0 #9
11.3 #3Steals per game6.3 #28
4.2 #22Blocks per game5.2 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Warriors112–124
  • L@ Timberwolves101–127
  • Lvs Lakers87–103
  • L@ Thunder101–108
  • L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Kings136–105
  • W@ Trail Blazers124–103
  • W@ Jazz110–105
  • W@ Kings123–112
  • W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.