Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineHOU -4.5moved 1 toward BOS

Total218.5no move

Season records: Celtics and Rockets
BOS	This season	HOU
5-1	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
2-4	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 113–108 · win probability HOU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

HOU -4.5

moved 1 toward BOS

Total

218.5

model 220.2 · Over by 1.5

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public on the spread

51% BOS

45% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

BOS 1, HOU 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUBig

BOS offense vs HOU defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, HOU 73.2%

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.1% of their shots

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, HOU 15.7%

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, HOU 31.9. Allowed: BOS 31.7, HOU 24.7

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Rest

BOS 1 day since its last game, HOU 2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

Even

HOU offense vs BOS defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	533	67%	52%	51%
Games with a total of 215 to 219.5	460	68%	49%	53%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	5-1

Venue/role: BOS away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs MIL	W133–101WO
Nov 6	@ CHA	W113–102WU
Nov 8	@ MIL	W133–101WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs MIN	L132–136LO
Nov 7	@ PHX	W119–105WO
Nov 9	vs DEN	L93–129LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 7–3 HOUBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2025-26	BOS 114 @ HOU 93	HOU -8.5	BOS W
Nov 1, 2025-26	HOU 128 @ BOS 101	BOS +4.5	HOU W
Jan 27, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ BOS 112	BOS -5.5	HOU W
Jan 3, 2024-25	BOS 109 @ HOU 86	HOU +3.5	BOS W
Jan 21, 2023-24	BOS 116 @ HOU 107	HOU +11.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 1, Rockets 3, even 1

CelticsBetterRockets

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

HOUSmall

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

HOUSmall

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

HOUSmall

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

CelticsBetterRockets

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

Even

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

HOU5.9 #8

BOS		HOU
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.20 #1
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
35.5 #10	3-point %	39.0 #3
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
28.0 #6	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

1 day since their last game.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

2 days since their last game.

Celtics @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Rockets