Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineMIN -11.5no move

Total234.5up 1 from 233.5

Season records: Bucks and Timberwolves
MIL	This season	MIN
1-5	Record	4-3
2-4	ATS	6-1
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 125–107 · win probability MIN 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

MIN -11.5

no move since the open

Total

234.5

model 231.7 · Under by 3

Model edge

MIN by 7

model vs market

Public on the spread

69% MIN

64% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIL 0, MIN 7 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs MIL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

MIL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, MIN 15.6%

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, MIN 26.1. Allowed: MIL 29.7, MIN 28.9

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, MIN 75.4%

Even

Rest

MIL 2 days since its last game, MIN 2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5	501	82%	49%	48%
Non-conference games at this spread	249	82%	47%	49%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-3
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MIL away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ BOS	L101–133LO
Nov 6	vs TOR	L94–122LU
Nov 8	vs BOS	L101–133LO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ HOU	W136–132WO
Nov 6	@ NO	W132–126WO
Nov 8	vs UTAH	W147–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIL 5–5 MINSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · MIL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 13, 2025-26	MIN 139 @ MIL 106	MIL -1.5	MIN W
Dec 21, 2025-26	MIL 100 @ MIN 103	MIN -12.5	MIL W
Apr 8, 2024-25	MIN 103 @ MIL 110	MIL +6.5	MIL W
Feb 12, 2024-25	MIL 103 @ MIN 101	MIN -9.5	MIL W
Feb 23, 2023-24	MIL 112 @ MIN 107	MIN -4.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Timberwolves 5, even 0

BucksBetterTimberwolves

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

MINBig

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

MINBig

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

BucksBetterTimberwolves

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MINSmall

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

MIN4.3 #20

MIL		MIN
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.13 #8
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
33.9 #21	3-point %	37.6 #6
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
26.0 #20	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.0 #13
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

2 days since their last game.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

2 days since their last game.

Bucks @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Timberwolves