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NBA · Sun, Nov 8

Jazz @ Timberwolves

Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
#26UTAHJazz
@
#2MINTimberwolves
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTAHThis seasonMIN
1-5Record4-3
1-5ATS6-1
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 125–108 · win probability MIN 90%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 211-223 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

UTAH 0, MIN 8 · 2026-27 so far
MINBig
MIN offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
MINBig
Three-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 41.7% and 42.8% of their shots
MINBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5
MINBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, MIN 15.6%
MINBig
UTAH offense vs MIN defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
MINBig
Recent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4
MINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, MIN 75.4%
MINSmall
Home court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, MIN 26.1. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, MIN 28.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -17.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.9
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 107.6 · MIN 125.3
Win probability
MIN 90%
1st half
Spread
MIN -9.8
Total
116.5
Projected score
UTAH 53.3 · MIN 63.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 0, Timberwolves 4, even 1
JazzBetterTimberwolves
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8
MINSmall
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11
MINBig
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17
MINBig
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
Even
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36
MINBig
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
JazzBetterTimberwolves
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
MINBig
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
MINBig
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
MINBig
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
UTAHSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jazz
Guards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTAHMIN
Scoring
108.7 #24Points per game120.0 #6
1.05 #25Points per possession1.13 #8
104.0 #12Pace (possessions)105.4 #9
Shooting
51.0 #24Effective FG%55.8 #6
32.6 #233-point %37.6 #6
41.7 #213-point attempt rate42.8 #16
31.6 #10Free throw rate26.1 #21
Possessions
17.0 #25Turnover rate15.1 #12
25.7 #22Offensive rebound rate30.0 #7
26.2 #19Assists per game27.3 #11
Defense
118.8 #25Points allowed108.7 #8
1.14 #25Points allowed per possession1.04 #4
53.9 #18Opponent effective FG%50.5 #5
37.6 #25Opponent 3-point %31.2 #6
13.3 #28Turnovers forced15.6 #17
77.1 #4Defensive rebound rate75.4 #8
6.2 #29Steals per game9.0 #13
6.5 #5Blocks per game4.3 #20
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
  • Lvs Spurs111–117
  • Lvs Grizzlies105–110
  • Lvs Lakers123–132
  • Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.