Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineORL -2.5moved 1 toward ORL

Total225.5down 1 from 226.5

Season records: Wizards and Magic
WSH	This season	ORL
3-3	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 117–113 · win probability ORL 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

ORL -2.5

moved 1 toward ORL

Total

225.5

model 230.3 · Over by 5

Model edge

ORL by 2

model vs market

Public on the spread

63% WSH

68% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 3, ORL 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORLBig

WSH offense vs ORL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, ORL 31.7. Allowed: WSH 21.8, ORL 29.8

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, ORL 13.6%

WSHSmall

Rest

WSH 3 days since its last game, ORL 1

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 37.6% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, ORL 68.9%

Even

ORL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	474	51%	47%	44%
Conference games at this spread	577	49%	44%	45%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	33	67%	42%	36%
Games with a total of 225 to 229.5	827	68%	50%	52%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-3
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; ORL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs ATL	L96–126LU
Nov 6	@ ATL	L96–126LU
Nov 7	@ OKC	L111–132WO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ PHX	W115–111WO
Nov 7	@ GS	L97–120LU
Nov 10	@ SAC	W121–117LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

WSH 7–13 ORLORL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · WSH 8-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	WSH 131 @ ORL 136	ORL -14.5	WSH W
Mar 3, 2025-26	WSH 109 @ ORL 126	ORL -15.5	ORL W
Jan 6, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ WSH 120	WSH +7.5	WSH W
Nov 1, 2025-26	ORL 125 @ WSH 94	WSH +9.5	ORL W
Apr 3, 2024-25	ORL 109 @ WSH 97	WSH +15.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Magic 1, even 4

WizardsBetterMagic

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

ORLBig

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

Even

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

Even

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

WizardsBetterMagic

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

ORLSmall

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

ORLBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

ORL4.2 #23

WSH		ORL
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.07 #21
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
29.3 #29	3-point %	35.4 #11
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
24.5 #24	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
7.2 #24	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

3 days since their last game.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

1 day since their last game.

Wizards @ Magic

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Magic

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Magic